electoralism

I think Kamala wins. Biden's walking corpse was a much worse candidate and he won in 2020. There's no way that Kamala "generic democrat" Harris will do worse than Skibidi Biden. Especially after the abortion ban.

I think a Kamala presidency will be worse for America and the world because everybody will go back to brunch. If the orange man wins, at least there will be some pushback for the horrible things that America is doing

I’m slightly on the side of Harris winning.

• I’ll give dems this, they’ve at least begun to develop a sense of party loyalty that the gop has.

• Tim Walz was admittedly an attempt to appeal to some economic populism. I have no faith they’ll make good on this, but I as per usual hope to be proven wrong.

• The gamergate sauce is dying to some extent. Gamergaters have been in victory dance mode for 10 years after winning and even among apolitical people I’ve seen them tell these red-baiters to fuck off

• Hilary Clinton in particular had a LOT of baggage and even in 2016 Trump barely won

• tons of early voting. Generally dems do better when more people vote

• I think overturning Roe was the GOP’s equivalent of Obgerfell, the pyrrhic culture war victory that they didn’t want to truly win.

• Also I’ve noticed a bit of the idea of fully forming a “uniparty”, dems love kowtowing to the gop and if I were a fascist, I’d want my most vocal dissenters to get on my case for not being fascist enough.

Oh, and a lathe for the road. I can see immediately after a Harris win that dems will smugly tell the left: “see? We don’t need you after all!” even before they go back to brunch.

I think Harris has it.

• The pollsters are over-correcting because their failure in 2016 gave them PTSD
• The events of the last week before the actual vote are extremely significant - and those include two of Trump's biggest gaffes this whole cycle
• Trump has never actually been super popular. Despite her attempts to throw it Harris is still closer to the "generic Democrat" who easily beats him than she is to Hillary
• The effects of COVID are currently understated by pollsters. That killed way more Rs than it did Ds.
• The effects of Republicans concentrating into places like Florida and Texas is currently understated by pollsters.

But then again I'm currently on the worst losing streak of my life counting cards so maybe it's best to bet against me right now.

My prediction is everyone will be happy and completely normal about the election results

I'm trying to think of the most jokerfying thing that could happen in Florida so that the actual results feel better:

Amendment 4 (abortion amendment) gets a majority vote of like 59% but ultimately doesn't pass because it needs 60%. Hell, maybe it just barely scraps 60%, and I get to celebrate for exactly one night before fucking Desantis finds a way to invalidate the results the next day.

Meanwhile amendment 3 (weed amendment) passes with something crazy like 70%+, and white small business tyrants rejoice. (I don't have a problem with weed, voted yes on it myself, but I would lose my shit if amendment 3 passed without 4.)

My prediction is at least 2 degrees celsius warming by the end of the century, a thing that whoever wins the US election in 2024 will help accelerate.

I am currently thinking it's going to be a pretty clean Harris win. Ask me again in an hour. I think she's done everything she can to fuck this up but she still wins due to the very unpopular abortion restrictions and people being tired of Trump as a person.

My prediction: we're not getting an official winner announced till Friday.

Other prediction: Kamala wins but Dems lose the Senate.

I drink.

My funniest prediction I've had since like 2 years ago was that Trump wins the election, Biden dies like a day later getting Harris sworn in as a lame duck....and then Trump dies 2 weeks before taking office and JD vance becomes president.

...I feel like we don't live in that timeline though. As of right now I think Harris just clinches it with the popular vote and the EC...then we spend the next few months litigating it both publicly and in various courts. Would be wild if the supreme court pulled a 2000 thing again...but I feel like that probably won't happen.

A genocide enabler will win.

The real question is: If Trump wins, will libs start caring about the genocide on Nov 5 or will they at least have the self awareness to wait until Jan 21

Right up until about a month or two ago, I was very convinced Trump was going to take it, but honestly both sides seem less interested in their own candidate and just voting against the other. There appears to be some big enthusiasm among women in places with abortion bans, so that could turn the tide, but also Harris has pissed off everyone vaguely left and essentially every Muslim.

I'm gonna call it for Trump, but I'm not confident anymore.

If Kamala does win, I think any sort of J6 shit is out of the question. The petite bourgeois that participated last time realized (due to all the arrests) its not a good idea to piss off the feds, and the dems will put out a biiiiiig show, complete with tanks on the front lawn of the white house, to show how "ready" they are.

Whoever wins, there will be minor squabbles about how it was stolen, and then things will move on quickly, aside from conspiracy theorists and resistance reddit libs.

I think Kamala wins both the EC and popular vote by a thinner margin than Biden in 2020. Also by some combination of PA/MI/NV being close and taking forever to count, major networks don't have a projected winner until Thursday morning at the earliest. Trump's team tries to take like 6 states to court for infinite recounts all the way until inauguration and it's all we hear about for the next 3 months.

Funniest possible outcome next to an EC tie is that Kamala wins the EC but loses popular vote, unfortunately for my fellow chaos-enjoyed, that looks extremely unlikely. That might be the only way we ever see the end of the EC.

Someone's doing a mass shooting at a polling center

I think narrow Trump win by winning Pennsylvania. It's all vibes based though, no data

There will be another thing on Jan 6 2025 and it becomes an official part of the presidential electoral process

Harris and Trump both coincidentally die in the same car crash on election day, and the USA balkanizes as a result

My prediction is that I'm gonna vote for PSL, and only because a friend needs me to drive them to a voting booth so I'll already be there.

Republicans barely take it in a dubious 2000 Florida style situation while the Democrats go full ballistic on lawsuits against the Green party because they got like 3% of the vote in a different, irrelevant, state.

The margins are narrow enough that it will be a 2016 style coin flip that's decided by which way the independent voters break, and the normies are too pissed off at abortion bans and too annoyed by Trump to break for him again.

Unless Genocide Joe managed to completely alienate every Muslim voter in Michigan, and the Pennsylvania margin is narrow enough that the Supreme Court can do another judicial coup.

I'm predicting Trump takes it with a popular vote loss, as is tradition. The only states in serious contention are like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada (which barely matters). Harris would need to win all four to take home the EC—Trump needs just one (except for Nevada).

the surprising polls i the last day or so are making me think kamala has a chance and i'm not sure it's a good thing since it's guarantees that democrats will continue to use minorities to virtue signal and those minorities will love democrats for it.

Whoever wins we lose

I bet Kamala catches the snitch, but Trump wins the World Cup

Standard Leftist preamble: I so don't care.

I think Trump eeks out a tiny EC lead. Most voters think Orange Man = gooder economy. Coupled with the fact the libs did no coalition building while also pissing off the Muslim vote, and Trump will limp across the finish line. Only caveat: abortion might force some otherwise Trump supporters to stay home.

Truly a race to the bottom.

The popular vote will be razor thin - within a percentage point either way. No one will care except for your 24hour news channel of choice.

There will be no other Jan 6 like action. The first one was too contradictory (I love Trump who loves cops but I hate these cops but I love rules but not these rules... let's cosplay like out of shape vikings and steal AOCs shoes).

Trump will die within 2 years of office and it'll cause a constitutional crisis (this one is just wishful thinking).