this post was submitted on 04 Nov 2024
105 points (99.1% liked)

electoralism

21995 readers
780 users here now

Welcome to c/electoralism! politics isn't just about voting or running for office, but this community is.

Please read the Chapo Code of Conduct and remember...we're all comrades here.

Shitposting in other comms please!

founded 4 years ago
MODERATORS
EmmaGoldman@hexbear.net
context@hexbear.net
InsidiousTrackers@hexbear.net
gaystyleJoker@hexbear.net
ZoomeristLeninist@hexbear.net
105
List you predictions here. (hexbear.net)
submitted 1 day ago by Posadas@hexbear.net to c/electoralism@hexbear.net
92 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

I'll go first.

I expect this to be the same as 2020, but North Carolina might flip blue.

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] SSJ3Marx@hexbear.net 20 points 1 day ago

I think Harris has it.

  • The pollsters are over-correcting because their failure in 2016 gave them PTSD
  • The events of the last week before the actual vote are extremely significant - and those include two of Trump's biggest gaffes this whole cycle
  • Trump has never actually been super popular. Despite her attempts to throw it Harris is still closer to the "generic Democrat" who easily beats him than she is to Hillary
  • The effects of COVID are currently understated by pollsters. That killed way more Rs than it did Ds.
  • The effects of Republicans concentrating into places like Florida and Texas is currently understated by pollsters.

But then again I'm currently on the worst losing streak of my life counting cards so maybe it's best to bet against me right now.