this post was submitted on 28 Sep 2024
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While election almost certain to be decided by swing states, pollsters explain why growth in national polls is meaningful


🗳️ Register to vote: https://vote.gov/

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[–] paf0@lemmy.world 120 points 1 month ago (5 children)

It only matters in the swing states. The ones where they're trying to purge the voter registrations, sometimes successfully. The system is broken.

[–] OhStopYellingAtMe@lemmy.world 61 points 1 month ago

The Republican campaign strategy: “cheat to win, win to cheat.”

[–] BradleyUffner@lemmy.world 22 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Down ballot matters everywhere.

[–] paf0@lemmy.world 9 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Only if people are allowed to vote when they show up

[–] phdepressed@sh.itjust.works 4 points 1 month ago (1 children)

It still matters... that's the problem.

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[–] disguy_ovahea@lemmy.world 18 points 1 month ago
[–] radiohead37@lemmynsfw.com 15 points 1 month ago (1 children)

“There’s growing evidence to support a surprising possibility: [Trump’s] once formidable advantage in the electoral college is not as ironclad as many presumed. Instead, it might be shrinking,” Cohn argued.

[–] ClanOfTheOcho@lemmy.world 19 points 1 month ago

I'm in a red state. I'm in a neighborhood with a lot of of retired Republicans. I don't see a single Trump sign, but there is a growing count of Harris signs, including "Republicans for Harris." ymmv

[–] TheHotze@lemmy.world 3 points 1 month ago

Even in the strongest hold out states, they can be flipped if enough people vote. It can also set up for a flip next election. Vote anyway.

[–] Rhaedas@fedia.io 118 points 1 month ago (4 children)

Vote anyway. Be part of a sweep.

[–] Moah@lemmy.blahaj.zone 57 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Vote for every office, not just the president

[–] DokPsy@lemmy.world 24 points 1 month ago (3 children)

In TX, Theodore "I left my dog snowflake at home while the state was freezing and without power for a family trip to Cancun then blamed my wife and children for the trip" Cruz is currently up for defeat.

He only just barely won against Beto O'rourke last time. Colin Allred is closing in and needs all the help he can get.

[–] Scotty_Trees@lemmy.world 5 points 1 month ago (3 children)

I would love nothing more than to see that snake pick his bags and fuck the fuck off.

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[–] essell@lemmy.world 17 points 1 month ago

I think she'll be busy enough with one job

[–] BrianTheeBiscuiteer@lemmy.world 46 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Make it Trump's most embarrassing loss to date!

[–] Wiz@midwest.social 4 points 1 month ago

Followed by a jail sentence!

[–] schema@lemmy.world 42 points 1 month ago

A sweep will also make it harder for the inevitable attempt of republicans to invalidate the election.

[–] Fedizen@lemmy.world 5 points 1 month ago

end this silver spoon narcissist retiree's bullshit. Please vote

[–] HubertManne@moist.catsweat.com 106 points 1 month ago (5 children)

oh man I remember how hilary was going to win by such a large margin in those polls.

[–] JudahBenHur@lemm.ee 41 points 1 month ago (1 children)

kamala harris isn't hillary, though. I heard a recording of myself from like 2005 and a someone was saying "yeah hillary clinton can unite people" and I said "..against her" and I barely cared about politics back then.

[–] Fedizen@lemmy.world 6 points 1 month ago (1 children)

the gop has made inroads on the young white dude demographic, largely because of incels. Its more of a tossup for that reason and the electoral college (which lets all agree needs some kind of proportional rank choice fix, or to be dropped entirely for popular vote)

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[–] shalafi@lemmy.world 34 points 1 month ago

Does no one remember Jame Comey, Director of the FBI, coming out just before the election and saying they were reopening the investigation regarding her email server?

The polls were right, at the time.

[–] rayyy@lemmy.world 12 points 1 month ago (4 children)

Except Professor Alan Licthman predicted Hillary would lose then and has predicted a Kamala Harris win. He actually uses a scientific method for his predictions.

[–] lennybird@lemmy.world 18 points 1 month ago (3 children)

Many of the keys are subject to arbitrary interpretation; Nate Silver criticized his process and arguably has a better probability model with more consistent accuracy across thousands of races somewhere around 90%. Key 2 was given to Biden despite the writing on the wall that 2/3 of Democrats wanted a contest both before and after the primaries. Key 3 Incumbency these days is more of a liability with both candidates distancing themselves. Key 9 Scandals have lost a lot of meaning in the Trump era.

Should be noted that he gave a full-throated endorsement of Hillary Clinton... only to predict she'd lose. The thing is, he had originally referenced in two different publications ahead of that prediction that she would specifically lose the popular vote. She didn't. He then changed his model.

Also I'm not a fan of this guy because he belittled with insults those who called for Biden to step down... Despite not giving a prediction on Biden at the time.

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[–] eestileib@sh.itjust.works 7 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I saw an interview with him and he gives off quack vibes to me. 🤷🏼‍♀️

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[–] Frozengyro@lemmy.world 4 points 1 month ago

Polls use scientific methods too, that doesn't mean they aren't wildly incorrect from time to time.

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[–] Draegur@lemm.ee 83 points 1 month ago (1 children)

For fucks sake this should not be tight or close. It should be a gods damned CURB STOMP that destroys the Republican party for the rest of history DAMMIT.

[–] fluxion@lemmy.world 16 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Ozzy Osbourne would be a safer choice than this guy

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[–] lemmylommy@lemmy.world 76 points 1 month ago

Don’t trust polls. Vote.

[–] JeeBaiChow@lemmy.world 58 points 1 month ago

Doesn't matter. Go vote. Complacency gave the orange toddler his first term. Just sayin.

[–] UltraMagnus0001@lemmy.world 48 points 1 month ago

Don't fucking listen to the polls. GO VOTE!

[–] Phegan@lemmy.world 46 points 1 month ago (3 children)

We need to win by a lot more than razor thin margins, republicans are going to try and steal this one.

[–] vividspecter@lemm.ee 18 points 1 month ago

And you want to win by a huge margin so they can actually implement good policies, and not have to barter with Republicans and the likes of Manchin.

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[–] usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml 38 points 1 month ago
[–] luciferofastora@lemmy.zip 21 points 1 month ago
[–] jaggedrobotpubes@lemmy.world 17 points 1 month ago

Shutup and vote.

[–] CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world 14 points 1 month ago

Yesterday, I saw a few of donnie's loyalists standing out on a corner at a place with steady traffic, trying to get cars and pedestrians to honk/give them a thumb's up. In the hot sun. No idea if they were paid or not. They were way up in years and probably could be doing almost anything else but that. But these people love dimbulb donnie, no matter how much of a disaster he'll be. The worse off it is for the country, they'll cheer it on, as long as they believe donnie is going to hurt the right people.

Just made me look forward to filling out my ballot all the more. But definitely, everyone: go vote. Don't believe the polls.

[–] OhmsLawn@lemmy.world 11 points 1 month ago (1 children)
[–] tired_n_bored@lemmy.world 22 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (5 children)

As a non-american this scares me.

What the fuck does Trump have to offer to the average citizen? He is basing his campaign on

  • tax cuts for the extra rich
  • iMmIgRaNtS (who Harris wants to stop anyways)
  • licking the ass of Putin and Nethanyau
[–] Oyml77@lemmy.today 9 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Unfortunately, politics is teams sports in this country. Too many people are concerned with their side winning rather than what is best for the country or even for themselves. The propaganda machine has pushed people to support a small subset of issues as the biggest issues and these are often not the issues that actually have any impact on the day-to-day lives of most Americans. Critical thinking is not part of the discourse anymore for a large percentage, just rhetoric and slogans.

[–] eestileib@sh.itjust.works 4 points 1 month ago

You're not mentioning racism and sexism, which is at least as important as what you're describing.

[–] OhmsLawn@lemmy.world 6 points 1 month ago

As an American, this scares me.

I try to share this site when national pole articles come out, because these are the only numbers that matter in our election. It doesn't matter how blue California is if they rat-fuck the elections in the swing states.

[–] nifty@lemmy.world 4 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Trumps pov is easy to understand, and so he’s easy to buy. You only need to stroke Trumps ego and speak his language and he’s on your side. That’s why Republican politicians think they can control him, except he’s too neurotic and unstable, likely because of narcissism made worse by dementia.

No one really votes for Republicans, that’s why they have to gerrymander and keep the electoral college alive. There’s like maybe 35%-37% of the American pop. which really supports their pov. The swing states are only ever an issue because of voter disenfranchisement, not because people actually swing. Very few people actually swing vote.

[–] JimmyMcGill@lemmy.world 3 points 1 month ago (5 children)

The electoral college favors Republicans but the narrative that “no one really votes for Republicans” is fucking bullshit

Yes, they tend to lose the popular vote but even then % wise, it’s way closer than it should be.

The way you phrase it, makes it seem like they are a fringe group that through cheating manages to win even if they only have half as many votes as the Democrats.

They are popular even with, or perhaps actually because of, all of the racism, sexism and fascist tendencies. Do not downplay that.

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[–] homesweethomeMrL@lemmy.world 3 points 1 month ago

AND HERE THEY COME INTO THE BACK CORNER IT'S TRUMP IN THE LEAD WITH HARRIS SURGING UP THE INSIDE!!

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