I predicted to the lib I work with that voter turnout this election would be far lower than last time and he was adamant that it would be high; it should be a lot higher if it's going to meet the numbers from four years ago, shouldn't it?

I expected it to be low but I didn't think it would be this bad; if this number doesn't spike it's going to be worse than 2016.

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 20 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (3 children)

Edit

Fucking google fucking SEO garbage articles. I googled yet more and I finally found something useful.

Early voting map: How to make sense of 2024 presidential election data

Oct. 31, 2024

[–] sovietknuckles@hexbear.net 21 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

That chart compares the number of 2024 early voters to the total number of voters in past years, not early voters in past years. That article includes another chart which shows a comparison with 2020 early voting:

Early vote totals since 2012

So Dems are definitely in a worse place than 2020, but maybe they're not doing worse than in 2016

[–] UlyssesT@hexbear.net 10 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Are Dems presumed to be the ones doing most of the early voting?

[–] Sulvor@hexbear.net 8 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Its actually a fairly even split last time I looked.

Although all they know is the registration of the early voters.

I think I'm still registered Dem from the 2016 primaries but voted for Claudia, and I imagine a non-insignificant number of Reps are voting for Kamala and the unregistered might? lean Trump

[–] Parzivus@hexbear.net 9 points 2 months ago

They're saying early voting is pretty high this year (>50% of registered voters in NC and GA!). I would guess we're going to be around 2016 numbers.

[–] Evilsandwichman@hexbear.net 8 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Um....if I'm understanding this chart right, this means the last time the numbers were this low was 2014?

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 10 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Unless I'm making a mistake - the blue bars are the key thing: "by mail or before election day". 2014 was 31.1.

[–] BodyBySisyphus@hexbear.net 9 points 2 months ago

The bars are shares, though. Assuming @vegeta1@hexbear.net's number of 154 million, 71 million is 46% of 2020's numbers

But 2020 was also unusually high-turnout and I'm assuming more people will vote in person this time around due to ending the covid restrictions, so I'm assuming the final proportion will be higher.

[–] Evilsandwichman@hexbear.net 8 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Ah, okay, I misunderstood the chart (like....grossly misunderstood the chart)

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 7 points 2 months ago

I don't particularly like the infographic I shared but I got very tired of googling due to google itself and SEO articles that go on and on but there are no infographics. I don't want to read about numbers. I never do. Show it to me as infographics that's what they're for.

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 4 points 2 months ago

I was wrong and you were right. I edited the comment.