I am not convinced Trump will be on the Georgia ballot even if he doesn't get any other penalty in the trial.
this post was submitted on 16 Jan 2024
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True, but that shouldn't make anyone feel better. Biden still has to make his case to voters, Trump or no Trump. We should not assume that Biden has any easier time if Trump is disqualified. If anything, it might be more difficult, particularly if Trump is thrown off some ballots and not others. That would mean Biden would have to run against multiple candidates, but still need a majority of EC votes to secure the election.
Republicans can effectively win without a majority of EC votes, because then the election goes to the State delegations in Congress, where Republicans have the advantage.
Trump won't be on the primary ballot in Nevada for sure. Nevada GOP decided to just give it to him.
It's pie in the sky to have polls this early, and even if it wasn't wildly premature to look at polls, they aren't great at actually predicting the outcome, because the people who conduct polls have a tendency towards polling people and areas that'll tell them what they want to hear...
It's also a live telephone poll. This type of pole has a lot of trouble getting a representative sample of people under the age of 40.
I believe Romney was "beating" Obama at this point in their election race.
Democrats have beat polls by 9+ points at ballot boxes since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
If Dems keep campaigning on how Republicans are actively trying to remove people's bodily autonomy, restrict people's right to exist, and set up a State Religion, they should be able to overcome voter apathy.
they should be able to overcome voter apathy.
You severely underestimate the power of apathy.
It's what keeps me from sliding into it myself.
There are some diligent Trump supporters on here constantly posting that he's ahead of Biden on Pluto and in Atlantis etc. Trying to demoralize?
I'm a Democrat to the core. But it's important to know what we're up against. Democrats will win if we show up, but we need to show up or it's back to Trump.
It's early to be in panic mode. I can't handle 11 months of terror. Let's see how things look in October. I'm voting against Trump anyway, unless I get an anxiety-induced heart attack.
Same.
Do you honestly believe there are voters who don't know what Trump is and what he's done? You think there are those that are undecided that will see these "Trump's ahead!" and go "not on my watch in 11 months!"
Yes, I do. There are people who plan to sit on the sidelines but will come out to vote if there's a risk of another Trump presidency. The US has notoriously low voter turnout compared to other mature democracies.
I agree with this... Getting people to turn up to vote in key places is the determining factor this time, same as last time. Biden won specifically because people showed up. It was very much a "not on my watch" kinda thing
There are voters who think that "Trump Derangement Syndrome" is a thing, that Trump is no worse in his ethics than any other politician, annd that the only reason he is being charged is that "The Left" is out to ruin him, not because of anything he has done.
There's a bit of denial there, to be sure, but the people who think this way surround themselves with media that reinforces this view. They have no reason to believe otherwise.
Trump seems to have a firm base who will support him no matter what. But, the only effective way to counteract that it to make sure that enough other people turn out in the right states to constitute a EC victory. So while these recent headlines might not turn a Biden voter into a Trump voter, they may contribute to a Biden voter giving up and not showing up at all. Trump voters are definitely going to show up, though.
Low turnout + solid base = Trump wins
Georgia went red every election after 1992, the surprise was Biden turning it blue, not that Trump is leading there now.
It's not demoralizing. It's acknowledging the reality of the situation.