Can somebody give me a TL;DW
this post was submitted on 06 Sep 2024
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TL;DW He thinks Kamala will win because of some factors he came up with in the 80s.
ty saved me a click 
He predicts Harris will win citing 8 keys he uses:
No primary contest and the party is largely behind her
No sizable third party spoil
In the short term and long term economies are good
Biden made large policy changes like Paris accords, chips act, inflation reduction act
No sustained social unrest
No meaningful white house scandals
Challenger charisma is limited to a narrow base
The points against her are:
Midterm gains by challengers
Harris isn't the incumbent
With Foreign policy failures and Foreign policy success left unchecked because she passed the majority of the keys.
With those last two he says "The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza. Which is a humanitarian disaster, with no end in sight"
In the short term and long term economies are good
lol
Biden made large policy changes like Paris accords, chips act, inflation reduction act
lol
No meaningful white house scandals
Genocides aren't scandalous to american moderates, so sadly this one is valid
In the short term and long term economies are good
I think this is false on its face, but let's see how these assumptions hold up if the strait of hormuz closes due to regional conflagration
Yeah he's just talking out his ass.
Honestly I think the lack of a primary is negative. But those keys aren't that bad tbh. He's just wrong on multiple points.
damn two coin flips in a row he's a savant
Allan Lichtman, the American University historian who’s been dubbed the Nostradamus of presidential election predictions for his near-perfect 40-year track record.
10 coin flips in a row is about 0.1% chance
But if there's few thousand people predicting elections each term, there's bound to be a few people that get it correct every time
I'm bad at math but that's only 7 presidents, so that's 7 fifty fifty shots. If that were done as coin flips for everyone in America of voting age during those elections,.I'm pretty sure you'd see a thousand or more of the same results as this guy.
His name is really deadass Allan Lichtman
Allan Licht man? I sure hope he did
I don't want to give this guy undo credit but I think it's worth pointing out that the one election he got "wrong" was apparently the election of 2000. He predicted Gore would win.
.....yeah.
I found a YouTube link in your post. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
Thanks, I had no clue there were other options.