this post was submitted on 30 Jun 2024
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I think the third party is a valid thing to keep in mind. The Republicans are a bit more "ends justify the means", which translates to not letting themselves get distracted by "perfect is the enemy of the good". So they might even prefer a third party, but they are less likely to because they tend to be a bit more coldly strategic in their voting.
With respect to they can ignore the results of the primary vote... but that's exactly the sort of thing that people accussed them of when they put Hilary Clinton up as their candidate. So the right can tear into them for 'coronating' their candidate instead of doing an election.
While they can put up someone else, it would be a pretty desperate act, and it's hard to know which bad option is the worst of the options.
Fair points but I don't personally put much weight in the perception of what Republicans might say about a coronation for a couple reasons:
And this is the thing that I'm 100% convinced of by this point, personally. I see not just little hope, but no hope for Biden winning at this stage. As I tried my best to convey, Biden is performing significantly worse compared to 2020 and even Hillary's failed run. There's kind of a diminishing-returns argument to be made at this point that the vast electorate knows both Trump and Biden through & through. There's nothing new they're going to realize that they don't already know. So to move poll numbers now is next to impossible; and with that, the polls are going in the wrong direction for Biden, and the full effect of the debate hasn't even set in.
So what does one do? Well between riding out the inevitable crash, I think we take the chance with another way. But we won't do that by the looks of it. And I will bet large sums of money that Biden loses, unfortunately.