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The US is thinking about letting Ukraine use its weapons to strike Russia, even if it enrages Putin: report
(www.businessinsider.com)
this post was submitted on 23 May 2024
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Actually, we can and should. Here's why...
Russia's nukes are mostly 40 year old warheads on 50 year old delivery systems. These systems have been maintained by notorious black market scalpers who have somehow managed to sell massive amounts of valuable rocket fuels, nav computers and other unique parts on the black market over the last several decades. We can be sure the launch, guidance and detonation failure rates would be extremely high. High enough that, even without intervention, a long-range attack is very unlikely to be successful.
Now, factor in the decades of aggressive research and spending the west has focused on mitigating nuclear threats, with a high focus on Russian systems. While it's always best to avoid the attempt if possible, Russia has almost zero chance of posing a serious threat to the west. The threat to Ukraine, however, is a bit higher as they may (smartly) choose very simple delivery methods instead of what we would be able to defend against. But, that still requires a ton to go right and could cause the U.S. or the EU to become aggressive. Putin will do almost anything to avoid that outcome.
So, the smart money on expediting the end to this war and minimizing casualties is to have a policy to almost always call Putin's bluff. He has a very weak hand and has shown it to pretty much everyone at the table.
1% success rate * 5,580
Still more nukes than I want to deal with today. Nobody off of Lemmy/Reddit seriously suggests this.
Y'all are gonna get us all killed.
Nah, it's part of the game, he's just sending a healthy message that western governments also have their share of deluded drunken idiot medvedev equivalents, so only start nuking if you're sure you have absolutely nothing to lose, because that's what you're going to end up with.
Robert Frost's Fire and Ice but it's about whether chuds will end the world through overt jingoism and aggression or libs though a lack of self-awareness of how jingoistic they are combined with intentionally deluding themselves about the state of the world.
Fucking Americans. Fucking post-communist Russia too (which is also America's fault). We coulda had an enemy properly terrified of a nuclear exchange and committed to peaceful coexistence but noooo, we gotta open up those markets and now the omnicidal liberals want to risk destroying the world rather than give up a bit of land none of them could find on a map three years ago. Liberals are functionally indistinguishable from someone screaming "Blood for the blood god! Skulls for his skull throne!" except they know how to be all polite about it. A kinder, gentler global thermonuclear war.
Thank God the capitalists who rule this country don't give a shit what their supporters think or all humanity would be dead in a week. Sure they're bringing about the climate change apocalypse but at least that's more delayed than a nuclear apocalypse and I guess that's where the bar is these days.
Sorry I'm low-key drunkposting rn so I'm telling the truth more directly than usual.
If authoritarian dictators can do whatever they want via nuclear blackmail, we're already all doomed anyway
The world will be split into two camps: countries with nukes or otherwise under some sort of nuclear umbrella, and countries who are desperately rapidly developing a nuclear program, the third group who doesn't have nukes and isn't rushing to develop them will have already been annexed by the first group
What we have here are people convincing themselves that nuclear war is either not a possibility at all, or a tolerable outcome. That's a incredibly dangerous and delusional perspective.
There is a middle ground between "letting nuclear armed countries do whatever they want" and "completely disregarding any and all risks of escalation." The entire postwar order of the past 70 years has been grounded on that. If those lunatics ever get anywhere near the levers of power, then they will provoke nuclear war, maybe not with this specifically (maybe), but if they're taking that kind of cavalier and deluded approach in general, then it's only a matter of time.
If you go all-in every hand, you will eventually bust.
And if every country on earth suddenly starts playing a hand, someone is going to bust, so pick your poison I guess
Appease thugs with nukes and proliferate nuclear weapons around the world adding dozens more dice to be cast every conflict, or call their bluff and risk them actually using them
That's not even remotely how poker works, at all (or geopolitics).
It's okay if you don't understand the analogy
When everyone has nukes, all it takes is one country busting for us all to lose
Lmao. Let me just clear this up so you can stop pretending to know what you're talking about about.
In poker, you don't bust (that is, lose all your chips) unless you go all-in and lose. "If every country on earth suddenly starts playing a hand, someone is going to bust" is not true at all, because plenty of hands don't end in someone busting. Just because you lose a hand doesn't mean you're out of the game.
It's pretty clear that you were confused about the meaning of "bust" in this context which is fine but being both wrong and condescending makes you less sympathetic. Although, not nearly as much as being in favor of recklessly risking global thermonuclear war does.
Man this is your own analogy, do I really gotta explain it
If everyone is suddenly playing at the nuclear poker table, the chances of SOMEONE going all in each hand drastically increases, and if any one singular player goes bust, we ALL lose because the damn table explodes
Appeasement just kicks the can down the road (and makes things much worse in the future), it's vital that we not make playing nuclear poker appealing by letting countries get away with shit even if they do have nukes
Accept you were wrong after being unequivocally proven wrong challenge level: impossible.
If you're going to struggle this hard to follow along with expansions of your own analogies it would probably be best if you stopped using them, it's just making it harder on everyone else
God you're prideful. If you won't admit your mistakes then there's no point in trying to convince you of anything because you obviously won't listen, and there's no value in hearing your perspective because it's clearly unrefined.
Ironically, if you understood the fact that you could lose a poker hand without busting, maybe you could understand that you could concede this one tiny point and stay in the game. But I guess you only know how to escalate and double down. Rather Trumpian if you ask me.
It's okay, I forgive you, we all make mistakes sometimes, I'm sure you'll have better luck next time you try to engage
Well, you certainly do. I didn't make any mistakes in this conversation, apart from engaging with you at all. You, otoh, said something demonstrably and objectively incorrect, and then proceeded to, what are we at, quadruple down on it?
Indeed.
Iraq (no nukes) - armies flattened and US-installed government running the show.
North Korea (nukes) - stern finger-wagging by Democrats and angry rhetoric followed by hand jobs from Trump.
Pakistan (got nukes violating treaties) - serious frowning by US until we needed them for our pointless "war on terror" in Afghanistan, then all was forgiven and forgotten.
Iran (desperately seeking nukes) - agreed to stop their efforts for a hot minute until Trump rolled the deal back, showing that US is an unreliable partner and not to be trusted.
Overall the message is clear: get nukes as fast as you can and you'll be safe to torture and oppress your people. The west in general and the US in particular doesn't have any real efforts to stop you (although watch your opsec and don't use Israeli USB sticks you find lying around...).