this post was submitted on 12 Apr 2024
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That would be very surprising if it were true, considering the incomprehensively vast numbers of stars and planets out there. I wonder what the equivalent of crying in the shower would be for some alien though? Maybe that is our unique trait.
If it were not true then that would be the actual surprise. The probability for life to form has been computed over and over during the past century, incorporating ever more gains in scientific knowledge, and it is on the order of 10^-100^, meaning that there likely is no other life in at least our galaxy.
Source: your anus.
There's no one that can make the estimate accurately right now. Any calculation like that is going to rest on lots on many wild estimates and unknowns. Happy to look at it if you have a source though.
But so far chances of intelligent life seem to be vanishingly small and using those numbers we get one civilization every few galaxies.
There could be ten different civilizations in a radius of 100 light years of us with the same technological level we had 200 years ago and we wouldn't know.