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Let’s cut through the noise here. The idea that China has been playing 4D chess while the West plays checkers is a sexy narrative, but it misses the forest for the trees. Yes, China has masterfully leveraged the existing global system, pulling itself up from the economic bootstraps with a mix of state-driven capitalism and strategic engagement with Western technology and markets. This isn’t a con; it’s smart strategy, plain and simple. They saw an opening in the global market’s hunger for cheap labor and pounced, all while Western companies tripped over themselves to cut costs and boost quarterly earnings. Exploitative? Perhaps. But a con game? Hardly. Both sides knew what they were getting into; it was a marriage of convenience where both parties shared the bed for mutual benefit.

Now, onto this doomsday prophecy about the U.S. spiraling into oblivion. If you’re betting on American collapse, you’re going to lose your shirt. The U.S. isn’t just standing; it’s adapting and moving in ways that the naysayers seem to conveniently overlook. Post-COVID, the stats tell a story not of decline but of rebound and resilience. Unemployment’s in check, inflation fears are being managed, and domestic consumption is through the roof. Americans are spending, industries are innovating, and energy? The U.S. is sitting on an energy bonanza that makes the Middle Eastern oil sheikhs blush. Thanks to shale, the U.S. is not just energy independent; it’s a global energy heavyweight.

And let’s not forget technology. Silicon Valley isn’t just a place; it’s a global beacon of innovation. AI, biotech, quantum computing—you name it, the U.S. is at the sharp end of the spear. This innovation engine isn’t sputtering; it’s accelerating, fueled by a demographic dynamism that much of the developed world can only dream of, thanks largely to immigration.

As for Europe, casting it as the West’s last bastion against a rising China misses the point. Europe has its cards to play, sure, but don’t count the U.S. out of the game. The American economy is a behemoth, driven by internal markets, technological supremacy, and demographic vitality. Europe’s integration and strategic coherence are worth watching, but let’s not pretend it’s the only show in town.

In sum, the narrative that China’s rise comes at the expense of a declining West, and particularly a faltering U.S., is overly simplistic and frankly, wrong. We’re in a period of massive global transition, sure, but the American decline? That’s not the story being written. The U.S. is shifting gears, and the next chapter might just surprise the gloom-and-doom crowd.

You're attributing a lot of things to perfect execution without acknowledging the missteps and shortcomings of their approach.

The biggest in my mind is the domestic economic speedrun they're ending too quickly. China has gone from cheap low tech manufacturing for the world markets to high tech affordable partner to the world markets (which is the sweet spot), to now contracting to serve only a domestic market.

They blew through the sweet spot in about 15 years where other countries sit there for 50 to 100 years. During those 50 to 100 years, you raise the standard of living for your populace, bring literacy and education levels to modern levels, stabilize your population replacement rate, and most importantly let your populace generate generational wealth. What this means is they robbed multiple generations of the benefits in a speedrun to late stage capitalism. They skipped social reforms, worker protections, environmental protections, and banking regulations. They didn't have a long run of the good years in the sweet spot to absorb the turmoil that comes from learning these lessons an enacting reforms that the populace accept.

We're seeing the results of this already with China's 996 working hour system...

"The 996 working hour system (Chinese: 996工作制) is a work schedule practiced illegally by some companies in China. It derives its name from its requirement that employees work from 9:00 am to 9:00 pm, 6 days per week; i.e. 72 hours per week, 12 hours per day." source

...the "lying flat" demotivated youth because they don't see a path to getting ahead...

source

"Tang ping means choosing to "lie down flat and get over the beatings" via a low-desire, more indifferent attitude towards life."

...and China's dangerous population decline

source

"China's population drops for second year, with record low birth rate"

Obviously the next step is to throw out the westerners now that they served their purpose and their economies depend on China. This allows them to build upon the acquired technological know-how and the secured assets, giving them eventual technological dominance over the rest of the world.

Students of history, specifically China's history have seen this before. Historically China was regional power that thought they had everything they needed from the outside world and saw the outside as a negative not worth interacting with. They built the Great Wall to keep out the rest of the world emerging years later to find they were passed by as the world evolved without them.

If your narrative is correct, I'm shocked to that China seems to be making the same mistake again. The repeated success of large nations has been engagement with the outside world with trade. If you're right, China doesn't agree with that to their detriment.

hello~

westerner tech guy in China here. they haven't thrown me out yet, but then they haven't grown up an equivalent of we do yet either. they haven't tried to steal it or learn our secrets either.

nope for the last 3 or 4 years they've asked to license it to a local firm or better yet sell it outright to them. each time the price goes up and I suspect at some point it will become so irresistible that the founders will do it.

interestingly the sanctions closed us off from a lot of big institutes and companies who faced with losing the capability entirely just went ahead and acquired a bunch of Japanese stuff and jerry rigged it together. so that sucked.

because that's it, if we don't sell it to them someone else will and that'll be the end of the party for everyone.

pretty sure this has played out in history before.

I agree with everything you said, but I think the word "appropriate" in your second paragraph is using a better term for what they do. They straight up steal our technology. From appropriating the industrial IP used in their country when they manufacture stuff for our companies to actually stealing IP through hacking our companies, they have no qualms about where they get the tech they use. I'm not trying to imply that Chinese companies and people aren't smart enough to develop the tech we have, but it makes good business sense to spend zero money on R&D if there are no laws stopping you from copying tech from someone who has spent that money on R&D.

Mostly agree, the manufacturing agreements played Western companies like a fiddle in the long game. But I don't think Western companies will collapse (or Chinese companies gain dominance as you word it). We'll end up with two competing spheres, China and the west, protecting their own internal economies.