There’s some truth to underestimating the equipment for PR, it certainly has a huge positive PR spin to last 3 years off 5 flights estimate. But at the same time they are spending a lot of their budgets on projects that need to collect data. If 5 flights gives them the guarantee of solid data, then it was a justified project. On the other side of this, it was the first powered flight in any atmosphere outside of earth. There’s no way we had enough data to know just how long or how many flights it would do. Being this far off is reasonable. Same for the previous rovers, their estimates were low and far exceeded. The rover this time around got a much longer estimate, even if it’s beaten it already.

[–] shortwavesurfer@lemmy.zip 3 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Fair enough. In that case the next copter they send to mars should have something like a 150 flight estimate if this one did over 400.

[–] astrsk@kbin.social 2 points 9 months ago

I would reasonably expect an increase in expected life / flights of a future model for sure but it will be highly dependent on what’s being tested. NASA aren’t making tools, they’re making instruments, if that makes sense. They aren’t producing a rugged tool for accomplishing a mission that someone buys to use, they’re making scientific equipment that carry out experiments and collect specific data. Even the instruments themselves are experiments, such as the durability of joint designs on the collection arms, or the roter materials selected all have a purpose and associated datapoint.

All that to say, the expected lifespan / flights on the next model will reflect the mission goals and budget / cost of the project and not necessarily an accurate expectation of the system. More or less “we designed this instrument to deliver x amount of data” not “we designed this tool to survive y number of uses”.