Nah. Biden's numbers have returned to pre Oct 7 levels. The corporate donors and the new suburban members of Biden's coalition don't care about genocide; his defense of Israeli terror probably redounds to his benefit. The economy is working for the people the economy is supposed to work for, inflation has slowed, and the fed will ease rates in the coming year, spurring sentiment and allowing young people into homes. The student loan policy has discharged billions, and income driven repayment frees kids from snowballing debt. Labor participation is up, labor is crushing w public polling, labor is winning concessions. No one remembers about Biden and the railroad, but they will see him again and again in ad spots standing w the auto workers. He is hawkish on the border, which dampens one of the few possible salient conservative talking points (his position is also quite popular). Bidens serious mistake was arguably, if one squinted, his most progressive -- fleeing Afghanistan.

Trump has a hard ceiling and little room to grow. His refusal to accept the 2020 results, along with self destructive culture war overreach, led Republicans to the worst midterm showing in modern history. Both remain albatrosses on the party's neck. Referenda on abortion restrictions have lost literally everywhere, and the issue will mobilize otherwise unenthusiastic dems in November. Trump, avoiding news cycles thanks anemic Republican challengers and geopolitical drama, will again become the center of national attention, and remind the electorate of how tired it is of him. He is looking at serious criminal cases, which are seen as legitimate (at least outside of the New York state one), and which touch on serious issues of constitutional order and democratic values. The liberal media is staunchly against him, and will use their networks to underscore Trump as existential threat. He very well could be jailed, reducing enthusiasm among sober conservatives.

Dems have won the last three election cycles. Hillary is not on the menu, Trump is a known quantity and is deeply disliked, and the current legal cases, unlike the Mueller matter, are compelling and understandable and are being prosecuted and undertaken by adversarial institutions. Unless the economy tanks (not impossible surely, given some global shock) this is going to be a slim but comfortable Dem W.

Everything else is wishcasting, hoping you can dunk on libs for not listening, but there will be no karma at the ballot box; the libs never needed you.