this post was submitted on 08 Jan 2024
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In reality Biden is going to perform very, very poorly.
The only thing Biden had going for him in 2020 was not being Trump. Okay, what Trump era policies has he reversed? What "progressive" policy has he pushed through that hasn't been immediately struck down by the courts or shelved in the House? Libs like to bring up Build Back Better, the CHIPS Act, the Inflation Reduction Act. Yeah sure, whatever the fuck those even are. Ask the average American how those policies have materially improved their lives, and they couldn't tell you. He shit the bed with Afghanistan. Roe was killed on his watch. The concentration camps at the border are still open. We're financially on the hook for two foreign wars that are being waged by maniacs that have no true path to victory.
The majority of normal people think the economy is shit right now, and feel gaslit when they are told "
ackshually bidenomics is working and you're just wrong stupid poors lol 
" which is the narrative his campaign and the media have been pushing for months. No one is buying it.
The fact is, he's utterly failed to distinguish himself from his predecessor, a literal fascist. Without a major change in campaign and legislative strategy, he is done for. He cannot lose a single state that he won in 2020, and the threat of a second Trump term isn't enough to save him anymore. Also, thinking that Trump voters will stay home "because it's stolen anyway so why bother" is deranged magical thinking.
he certainly isn't going to ride in on a populist wave but I'm not convinced he'll lose either. People not knowing or caring about his pitiful policies is a double edged sword, they don't give a shit enough to know that his policies are terrible.
Not doing anything good is still better to most people than actively making things worse (not that biden isn't doing that, but it doesn't get covered like it did under trump), and frankly there's gotta be a contingent that just doesn't want to hear the media go back to full on trump derangement syndrome round-the-clock coverage.
Nah. Biden's numbers have returned to pre Oct 7 levels. The corporate donors and the new suburban members of Biden's coalition don't care about genocide; his defense of Israeli terror probably redounds to his benefit. The economy is working for the people the economy is supposed to work for, inflation has slowed, and the fed will ease rates in the coming year, spurring sentiment and allowing young people into homes. The student loan policy has discharged billions, and income driven repayment frees kids from snowballing debt. Labor participation is up, labor is crushing w public polling, labor is winning concessions. No one remembers about Biden and the railroad, but they will see him again and again in ad spots standing w the auto workers. He is hawkish on the border, which dampens one of the few possible salient conservative talking points (his position is also quite popular). Bidens serious mistake was arguably, if one squinted, his most progressive -- fleeing Afghanistan.
Trump has a hard ceiling and little room to grow. His refusal to accept the 2020 results, along with self destructive culture war overreach, led Republicans to the worst midterm showing in modern history. Both remain albatrosses on the party's neck. Referenda on abortion restrictions have lost literally everywhere, and the issue will mobilize otherwise unenthusiastic dems in November. Trump, avoiding news cycles thanks anemic Republican challengers and geopolitical drama, will again become the center of national attention, and remind the electorate of how tired it is of him. He is looking at serious criminal cases, which are seen as legitimate (at least outside of the New York state one), and which touch on serious issues of constitutional order and democratic values. The liberal media is staunchly against him, and will use their networks to underscore Trump as existential threat. He very well could be jailed, reducing enthusiasm among sober conservatives.
Dems have won the last three election cycles. Hillary is not on the menu, Trump is a known quantity and is deeply disliked, and the current legal cases, unlike the Mueller matter, are compelling and understandable and are being prosecuted and undertaken by adversarial institutions. Unless the economy tanks (not impossible surely, given some global shock) this is going to be a slim but comfortable Dem W.
Everything else is wishcasting, hoping you can dunk on libs for not listening, but there will be no karma at the ballot box; the libs never needed you.
I mean that's all true, but only American leftists care about that stuff, the vast plurality of the population are totally disengaged from politics and won't vote anyway, so none of the facts you mentioned matter to them
The actual freaks who vote like the fact Biden is a fascist, of course they don't use that word but to them Biden is "tough on crime", "tough on the ~~Arabs/muslims~~ terrorists", "doesn't take shit from the Kremlin Republicans"
And the the economy is doing good (line is up and housing is expensive), "the New York Times said so"
Old dude is gonna win it outright, it's 2004
Maybe. I think he's going to lose a lot of the youth vote. None of those things apply to them.
anecdotally I do know some people who've finally moved past "but if you don't voot blue you're voting for trump" in the past year or so. Not a ton, but a couple, and they aren't necessarily hardcore leftists either just done with genocide joe's shit
I think a lot of those people will start singing a different tune the closer the actual election gets and the more the media resumes talking about Trump.
The youth doesn't watch "the media"
"The media" ends up in front of you whether you watch it directly or not. Shit filters down into social media and online discourse.
There's a reason the youth are incredibly negative about Israel and it's not because they get their information from msnbc
Well yes one benefit of social media is us leftists get a bit of a voice on there too. But make no mistake MSNBC has their fingers in that pie too.
Yeah I'm one of them lol
You mean the vote that matters the least?
Biden barely won and a big part of it was record voter turnout from younger voters
The narrative that young people don't vote fell flat on its face in 2020
If by youth vote you mean Gen z yea still not great, and not to fall for the trap of saying millenials are young but those groups everybody scoofs at make up the majority of voters now.
The youth vote might not matter, but youth support does. They contribute labor to these campaigns that would cost incredible amounts if the DNC had to pay people.
Lol if you say so
When was the last time it mattered? Maybe Obama? That's about it.
Yeah and those of us who voted for the first time in that election are now in our 30's and the party still hasn't done jack shit for us
None of this is new though. There's been plenty of presidents who didn't deliver Jack shit but still won re-election. Obama was a total let down and he shit got a second term.