this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2023
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‘New era’: Tusk celebrates exit polls suggesting opposition win in Poland (www.aljazeera.com)
submitted 1 year ago by CAVOK@lemmy.world to c/europe@feddit.de
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[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 4 points 1 year ago (1 children)

these are partial election results, they got it only when some 20-25% of electoral circuits were counted up. this means villages and small towns mostly and it skews results in favour of PiS

late polls looked like this: PiS 36,6% (198) KO 31,0% (161) TD 13,5% (57) Lewica 8,6% (30) Konfederacja 6,4% (14)

needs 231 for majority, most probable coallition is KO + TD + Lewica at 248 seats

[–] skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de 3 points 1 year ago

looking at how partial election results change, PiS might get even less than that, maybe even as low as 33-34% which would place them much closer to KO a bit north to 31%. this is my rough guesstimate only