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‘New era’: Tusk celebrates exit polls suggesting opposition win in Poland
(www.aljazeera.com)
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this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2023
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Didn't the past ruling party still get over 40% which was the highest result from all parties? Or am I looking at wrong results / misunderstanding? Sorry, maybe the translator I used did something incorrectly.
Yes. Kept their plurality but lost control of the government.
Did they, though? They may not be able to pass laws as easily, but no one has the power to pass laws they won't like, so at "best", the situation won't get worse, if given extraordinary optimism that current status won't further escalate if unattended. From what I've read, they lost coalition with another conservative party, but that doesn't mean the other party won't have same views as them, therefore voting as they do. With how people spoke, I thought the old party got something like 10% with a super progressive party getting ~90%.
Government has to pass vote of confidence to form. PiS and its allies even combined don't have the numbers per preliminary estimates. Where as estimate is the main opposition and their supporting coalition of parties will have the numbers.
There is no way opposition is going to do the incumbent government the favor of refraining from voting down the PiS attempt to form government. If PiS and their one likely partner party try to form government, estimate is, attempt will crash and burn by geting voted no confidence by Parliament.
This is how things go in multiparty democracies and coalition governments. It doesn't matter who has plurality. What matters is "can you pass the government forming vote of confidence". Prime minister could be from the smallest party in Parliament as long as he can gather Parliament's confidence.
Edit: minority governments do happen in multiparty Parliaments, buy those happen at the leave of the Parliament. Meaning the minority is allowed to pass confidence. Either by directly getting support votes or depending voting system by parties voting empty. Some countries confidence votes is "there is confidence, unless majority actively votes yes on no confidence proposal". Making voting empty a tacit not enthusiastic signal of confidence. "We won't actively vote for you, but we won't either vote you down". Leaving government standing.
Minority government can not form against active resistance of majority of Parliament.
Well, moving from governing to opposition is a pretty clear loss of control.
What good a largely neolib coalition with a still powerful opposition will do is another question…
these are partial election results, they got it only when some 20-25% of electoral circuits were counted up. this means villages and small towns mostly and it skews results in favour of PiS
late polls looked like this: PiS 36,6% (198) KO 31,0% (161) TD 13,5% (57) Lewica 8,6% (30) Konfederacja 6,4% (14)
needs 231 for majority, most probable coallition is KO + TD + Lewica at 248 seats
looking at how partial election results change, PiS might get even less than that, maybe even as low as 33-34% which would place them much closer to KO a bit north to 31%. this is my rough guesstimate only