this post was submitted on 08 Feb 2025
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What makes you think Trump is changing the outcome? Are polls shifting?
Yes, they are. Recent polls have shown a strong swing towards the Liberals. They're not in the lead yet, but the current trend is that direction, and that's without them even having a selected leader yet. Polls asking about hypothetical elections where Carney is the leader actually put them in a dead heat with the Conservatives (and unlike the US, in Canada its the Liberals who have the vote distribution advantage, so ties go their way more often than not).
I’d be just fine with a conservative loss or even a minority. Just no majority please.
Yeah, even a minority Conservative government would be better than what we've been facing. And frankly, I desparately want to set what happens to the current Conservative party if Pollievre flames out. That alliance is fragile and strained. I wonder what another loss would do to them.
one shows a combined shift of about 13 percent. Polls are polls, they're a dime a dozen. but the effect is immediately noticeable.
Also, Poilievre's message is that Canada is broken and divided, but I think people are seeing what broken really looks like and Trump's tariffs has unified the country in a single weekend.