askchapo

People I know are sharing polymarket predictions about the presidential election, and just reading about how the predictions work sounds like the most capitalism-brained nonsense. Like, try reading this without shaking your head:

On Polymarket, you can buy and sell shares representing future event outcomes (i.e. "Will TikTok be banned in the U.S. this year?")

Shares in event outcomes are always priced between $0.00 and $1.00 USDC, and every pair of event outcomes (i.e. each pair of "YES" + "NO" shares) is fully collateralized by $1.00 USDC.

Shares are created when opposing sides come to an agreement on odds, such that the sum of what each side is willing to pay is equal to $1.00.

The shares representing the correct, final outcome are paid out $1.00 USDC each upon market resolution.

Unlike sportsbooks, you are not betting against "the house" – the counterparty to each trade is another Polymarket user. As such:

Shares can be sold before the event outcome is known_ (i.e. to lock in profits or cut losses)

There is no "house" to ban you for winning too much.

Thing is, I'm 3 stupid 5 explaining why this stuff sounds off. Am I just doing a liberalism by speaking without investigating more? Is this as BS as it comes off as to me?