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I'm not sure what you say you're disagreeing with.
I'm saying a portion of the population with still valid passports may choose to leave because of these new restrictions. Are you disagreeing and saying "not a single person with a valid passport will choose to leave China forever"?
Fine, I'm suggesting most people would choose their money over their lives right now, though that might change over time.
I agree with you on this. My point at the beginning of this thread was the group of folks choosing their money over their lives is now getting smaller now that it looks like they may not have the chance the make the choice again at a later date (when their passport is seized).
While I would agree here, I think they will still choose their money right now.
The richest will definitely consider leaving, but I think the choice between life and money right now still leans toward money unless you can feel safe getting money out.
There have been high-profile people losing that bet, but my exposure suggests the frogs haven't yet reached the jump point, though there is a lot of fidgeting.
The data doesn't back your idea. Since 1950 (the beginning of this dataset) China has had a negative Net Migration rate. More people have chosen to leave China even accounting for others that choose to come to China.
source
About 310,000 more people per year leave China than come. source
I'd like to believe that, anecdotally I've seen a number of engineers head back because they felt they could leverage their skills where they were the one-eyed in the land of the blind.
You really should want to leave though, Xi is not subtle in his desire to control all aspects of Chinese life.
I agree with you. I don't think those engineers are wrong that they will likely do well as the CCP has a big push to develop domestic research married to its strong domestic manufacturing.
This is the part that confuses me about those engineers actions. Jack Ma was one of those engineers at one point. If you're too successful, bad things happen to you. So what does that mean for the engineers that are going back? Do they perhaps see themselves reaching upper middle class status, then stopping career growth? Do they not see that even being rich in China doesn't give you the right to express your opinion?
You nailed it, but the engineers are very much at a "reign in hell vs serve in heaven" point right now because the CCP is promising everything.
But also, most of those engineers aren't the good ones, they often don't value the freedoms we have here, they just want a safe and comfortable lifestyle for themselves and their kids, which seems reasonable right now.
I think there's a ... "hive safety reflex" if that makes sense? They feel safer in China than in the west right now, especially as the world is de-globalizing, and they fear being left in a potentially hostile land, which is one of the narratives the CCP is using to counter fears of its own tyranny.