this post was submitted on 14 Oct 2024
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[–] FungiDebord@hexbear.net 6 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

I thought the humiliation of 2016 should have made him crawl under a rock to hide forever

Huh? Silver was literally the only "serious" prognosticator who forecasted a possible upset; everyone else thought it was a no contest (Princeton gave it like a 99.5% "Bayesian" prediction for Hillary).

[–] UlyssesT@hexbear.net 5 points 3 weeks ago

"Bayesian"

"Bayesian" in contemporary use means "make up numbers and apply those made up numbers until whatever result you want to happen looks likely, even inevitable." big-yud

[–] CommunistCuddlefish@hexbear.net 4 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Am I misremembering? Who was the statistician who predicted a slam dunk for Clinton and then later released a post about why he got it wrong?

[–] FungiDebord@hexbear.net 2 points 3 weeks ago

it may have the Princeton Consortium guy. i think he said he'd literally eat his shoes, or a pile of bugs or something if he lost -- i'm sure he at least ate rhetorical crow and had to follow up with a mea culpa post.