junebug2

after initially thinking that this seemed like a good idea, isn’t the point of a megathread to contain a bunch of people talking about one topic? if and when we experience “100 comment hours” or “1000 comment days”, we are all on the same page, and sharing/ commiserating/ celebrating/ insulting the current moment. i think encouraging substantive main comments is good, but we don’t need strict rules

i don’t see censorship as inherently good or bad, and i believe some of the stuff facebook took down was of the “ivermectin covid cure” sort. Noticing censorship for the first time because of Covid is fine, as long as they can see how Covid censorship is of the same feather as the media blackout on CIA torture and the current chief. Just based on living near some cranks (some well-meaning and some not), i feel like jumping on Covid specifically points to a ‘plandemic’ sort of worldview.

i fully agree with your point about media control. i think future changes will use that reputation, as experts and arbiters of public opinion, as the basis for their legitimacy

https://www.kitklarenberg.com/p/british-intels-counter-disinfo-war

A article about how parts of the British intelligence community are seen as experts in mis- and dis-information, and how they are now exporting their experience. There is some detail about intelligence interacting with social media. The discussion is rooted in a leaked slideshow from an intelligence meeting in 2021. The exact way the author talks about the Biden admin’s Covid “censorship push” sets off my personal crank alarm, but the analysis of the leaked slideshow is not affected by this. Saying ‘counter-disinformation’ instead of propaganda might be a rehash of changing the ‘department of war’ to ‘defense’. Sir Kid Starver and many of his Red Tory compatriots are actual, factual MI6 assets. Czechoslovakian Internal Ministry documents from the Cold War had a whole file on the then-Mr. Starver. It’s also known that the British are more gung-ho about Ukraine than the US, and also that the Ukraine project was CIA before it was NATO. You can almost see the shades of our future where a need for internal security and countering Russian influence can only be entrusted to apolitical, non-partisan intelligence experts. See also the USAF intelligence general sending out an email requiring all federal and state candidates to agree to uphold election integrity as decided by the intelligence community.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/japan-says-it-received-no-advance-notice-of-chinas-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-launch/3340804

A short article about Japan rattling sabers over the PLA testing an ICBM. The article is from the Anadolu Agency, a news site from Türkiye with a logo that looks exactly like American Airlines. It’s Turkish bourgeois media, but Türkiye is trying to join BRICS+, so we might see reporting contrary to Western spin. Even if China informed every possible party and followed international law, the more important fact is that Japan is rapidly rearming under US encouragement (and, i believe, some popular discontent with militarizing). Every statement made now is building up a raft of ‘provocations’ and ‘lines crossed’ and ‘aggression’ for whenever the USA decides it wants a war in East Asia. See also the Philippines ‘accidentally’ having Typhoon missiles left in their country after exercises with the USA.

https://resistancenews.org/2024/09/24/the-exhilaration-of-first-strikes-in-lebanon-israel-repeats-the-mistakes-of-2006/

An article looking back at the last few days by the editor-in-chief of Al-Akhbar, translated by Resistance News. According to wikipedia, Al-Akhbar is a left wing, anti-zionist, leaning pro-syrian Lebanese daily newspaper. They also call it a semi-tabloid without a source, which makes me think that it reports facts that some wikipedia editor doesn’t like. So not to replace analysis with contrarianism, but i don’t feel compelled to verify further. Resistance News is a good source. The mention of Western and comprador nations trying to stir up Syrian and Lebanese groups “in an uprising to demand a ceasefire from the Resistance” is interesting, since I haven’t personally seen anything about that before now on my side of the language barrier. The latter paragraphs underscore one of the lessons of post-Vietnam military thought: the USA (and friends) have developed a theory rich and deeply analytical conception of how best to apply massive terror bombing and mechanized shock and awe against opponents without air defense. They have now taken the existence of complex theory as evidence that this must work, which is a blindness that can be exploited. Unfortunately, this blindness does not change the mass death and destruction the “Western way of war” will bring.

i have an early shift today, so i will be posting the other articles later.

A discussion of what seem to be Zelensky’s future diplomatic plans. The author, Mr. Bhadrakumar, is a professional diplomat who writes about foreign affairs, but he is not a Marxist. He talks about Zelensky’s continued purge and the three point plan he intends to present to Biden. To the second half of the article, some milbloggers think Zelensky’s plan is an intentional over-ask. Zelensky will get his ‘betarayal’ from the West, and pivot to negotiations and conceding the status quo, at least. With that possibility in mind, the first part of the article suggests that perhaps Zelensky is legitimately trying to break with the CIA. They’re certainly not the only people in Ukraine credibly threatening Zelensky’s life. https://www.indianpunchline.com/zelenskys-victory-plan-is-his-survival-kit/

An exclusive report on electronic warfare measures affecting commercial flights. GPS spoofing is affecting airlines around the world (but only people in the West could be reached for comment). Companies, regulators, and pilots are split on what to do. It’s worth noting that as flying gets more stressful or dangerous, there are already major pilot shortages in USamerica from Covid, expensive training, and mandatory retirement at 65. The Wall Street Journal does produce original journalism. Their ideology is known. Functional air travel is in the interests of everyone, especially journalists. i did not read the comments and i don’t think people should. https://archive.md/RztnK

A very good analysis of Mexico-USA-China relations. It is quite long. It goes over AMLO’s judicial reform and the USA attempts to stifle it. The DEA are doing what, in another country, one might call “election interference”. In response, AMLO has been talking more with China. On the liberal/ diplomatic side of things, there are a lot of statements from diplomats, which are nice to read because sometimes i forget what real diplomacy sounds like. On the material side of things, it’s worth noting most Mexican imports from China are to be either assembled and then shipped to the USA or to be shipped to the USA to dodge tariffs. Mexico and China are the two largest exporters to the USA, and are competing to sell products. On the other hand, the USA has no answer or equivalent to the Belt and Road Initiative. A transoceanic railway link from the Gulf to the Pacific could compete with the Panama Canal, and all of the investment in it is Chinese. Chinese cars and electronics are gaining market share, and BYD is promising a dealership in every state and one factory, somewhere. The article concludes with a quote from Forbes Mexico, which really shows how outrageous recent USamerican actions have been. It is a further example of USamerican arrogance in the face of a changing world. When confronted with things not going as they plan or desire, they can never adjust the plan or cooperate. The ruling class of these times can only reach to violence, tariffs, and threats. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/09/beijing-and-mexico-focus-on-deepening-cooperation-as-bilateral-trade-surges-to-record-levels.html

good morning, comrades. several comments in the rules request thread were about solid links and substantive main comments in order to build discussion. while i am not sure strict rules are required (there is something to be said for making sure people aren’t so concerned over self-esteem or “real leftism” that they stop talking), i do enjoy discussion based on links from good sources. also, there are people who post very good links and videos from telegram and twitter of primary events, so i am going to try and link analysis of things that have happened in the past few days.

as such, for at least this week, i will be posting what i think are the top three-ish naked capitalism articles of the day, along with some commentary. think of it as a bootleg and abbreviated rip-off of comrade 72T’s bulletins. if it looks like i have time for it with work and people like it, i will do my best to continue.

A breakdown of the recent German state elections in Brandenburg, as well as a general picture of the German economic and political trajectory (bad). i think it is worth extending some mental sympathy to BSW, since unlike many other ‘patsocs’, they wish to RETVRN to the GDR, a real and decent place, instead of purely nationalist fantasy. Many of the people involved, including Ms. Wagenknecht, were adults when the Berlin Wall came down. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/09/atlanticism-or-sovereignty-fight-in-germany-continues-with-latest-state-election.html

A good explanation of how the ocean is getting warmer, and also a good example of runaway warming/ climate feedback loops. i will say that i think arctic-news’ estimation of up to 18 degrees celsius warming is a bit sensationalist, but sources i prefer suggest 7 to 10 degrees if no mass action is taken and we actually get worse at emissions (the current trajectory), which is still “we all die” territory. https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/high-temperatures-despite-la-nina.html

A very brief report about Ukrainian military activity in Syria. Interesting to think about in context of “is this World War 3 yet?” Also a clear sign of Ukraine lacking a plan for victory (in what universe does a base outside Aleppo effect anything in the Donbass?). Since we know that all Ukrainian ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) is USamerican, you have to wonder what Uncle Sam wanted destroyed in Syria last week (and what the entity was doing to that Iranian base). https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/ukrainian-special-forces-syria

the russians did not deploy enough troops to ever seize or siege a large population center in northern Ukraine. back of the envelope occupation math suggests 1 soldier for every 1000 civilians. the russians did not deploy that many troops on the entire Ukrainian front. big serge (my milblog goat) goes into more detail here

many news heads have rightly said that this pager (and now radio) attack makes sense only as a direct prelude to invasion, and the zionist entity seems to have wasted this opportunity. i also saw a comment, before the relevation that two hezbollah fighters had discovered the pagers, that “israel” has a tendency to pull the trigger on operations as soon as they are technically feasible. this sort of strategic flailing seems odd, but it also lines up with the conclusions of a US army analysis of the 2006 “israeli”-hezbollah war.

it’s about 60 pages of actual content, and it’s interesting for a number of reasons (there’s a good section on the missiles hezbollah used for people into that). now there’s a two decade sized grain of salt that should be taken here, but i doubt i could get access to current “israeli” planning, let alone in english. the biggest conclusion for recent events is that the zionist entity has focused on counterinsurgency and air power, degrading its combined arms capabilities and doctrine to the point that it does not have them.

specifically, “israel” has fallen for the US air force’s greatest lie - that air power and bombing can stand as a combat arm independently from ground operations. as such, the head of the military at the time was an airman, and the doctrinal changes created were both confusing and biased against ground combat. additionally, the long time focus on ‘counterinsurgency’ in Gaza (the phrasing is not mine) has led to reserve mechanized equipment not being replaced, tank and mechanized crews not being trained, and minimal training at the division or batallion level. the lack of training in large formations and the fact that doctrine became more confusing as the formations got larger led to failure, broadly.

to provide an illustration, i’ll run through the actions of two divisions in the last act of the war. the UN had passed a ceasefire resolution, and for reasons that are not completely clear, “israel” planned a last hurrah offensive. the symbolic goal was the litani river. division 91 of the iof was meant to be driving towards the mediterranean, but stalled out completely. In an inquiry after the war,

The investigation concluded that commanders within the division “did not fully understand their orders” and “were not present with their troops during important battles and even failed to fulfill basic missions.” The investigation also found fault “in the way tactical orders were composed, sometimes without a time element. Since the orders were not clear, they were changed, in some cases, on an hourly basis. Brigade commanders did not properly understand their missions. . . . They didn’t know what their goals were and how long they had to fulfill their missions.” Remarkably, according to the report, “an entire battalion sat in the same location for several days without moving and when the commander finally received orders to push deeper into enemy territory he was confused and failed to fulfill the mission.”

division 162 was looking to take Ghandouriyeh, a town that sat on a crossroads and high ground. they had to cross a valley, Wadi al-Saluki, to get there. first, the general sent air assault elements to secure the high ground over the valley. the air assault successfully landed near two towns, cleared several occupied buildings, did not take the high ground, and then reported that they secured the high ground. 24 tanks were sent up the road, and a collapsed building in front of them and an ied behind them had them trapped. each merkava had a smoke screen to make missile aim harder. dozens of anti-tank missiles then struck the column. not a single tank deployed smoke, and 11 tanks were hit. what infantry that was near was pinned by fire, and tank crew requests for artillery or air support were denied out of fear of friendly fire. the advance stopped at that town.

to me, this paints a clear picture of modern military material (tanks, electronics, aircraft, artillery, and infantry) manned by people who don’t know how to use them. there is no feature of the actions of these divisions where their equipment failed them. moreover, i would expect any competent force with air assault, artillery, and armor elements to be able to seize a lightly defended town 10 kilometers from their border.

so the iof is made up of a large number of uncoordinated small groups, and collectively has little sense of how to put these pieces together. and you might say, “well maybe they fixed some of that in the last twenty years”. i think the fact that modern merkavas have the trophy system answers whether or not that happened. it’s a very cool toy, designed to blow up an oncoming anti-tank missile mid air. strapping sensitive explosives to the front of your tank means that your infantry cannot be anywhere near it. so we see dozens of unaccompanied merkavas and bulldozers parked somewhere that a resistance fighter can run up to, unopposed. we also might see a hot shot intelligence officer cook up some pager plan, report it to his commanding officer, and have it approved without anyone thinking that operations are only effective in sequence and with support.

since 2022, there has been significant tension between the aims of the russian state and its military industry and the central bank. interest rates have been sitting at 18% since 2022 because the bank is run by neoliberal, USamerican educated economists. if the fact that russia’s central bank is serving as an obstacle or neoliberal holdout dooms the russian economy, they have never had a chance and we should have all stayed in our armchairs the whole time. you can spin anything out of anything; that same reuters article says that the current head of the russian imf, who brought russia in in ‘92, is stepping down and being replaced by someone sanctioned by the USA by name. shouldn’t a person who can’t legally enter USamerica have different personal, material interests than someone living in washington?

the US has had the complete control and buy in of every private and public bank in europe after 2009 and quantitative easing. they have been trying to get russia in since 1991. the US economy is based on formalized lying. the tried and true method is relying on powerful regulatory and legal bodies to exploit other countries. you like to point out how the USSR’s purported economic value was cut in half by the switch from gnp to gdp as some example of the awe inspiring abilities of USamerican finance. i think this misses the point that your chosen method of judging economic success grows out of the barrel of a gun. if various compradors hadn’t overthrown the government and gleefully participated in the looting, then the on paper decision to switch accounting methods would have done nothing. the existence of US-influenced economists does not represent subjugation.

the chinese banks complying with the sanctions was an L, i can’t disagree with that. but the USA has been ‘pivoting to Asia’ since 2015? 2014? it was definitely obama + hillary. the tpp fell through, and as it turns out the US has no actual interest in leaving SWANA. the idealized plan is to win and pivot and win and pivot. even the second invasion of iraq was meant to be a quick win before pivoting to war with iran. every single pivot has simply led to overextension. the war on terror has units deployed from central asia to the sahel. the nato-russia war seems set to cook at this pace for years. all of this is happening as the neoliberal hollowing out of the US starts to kill the logistical tail and manpower of the US military. every single service has missed recruiting targets for several years, and i don’t need to explain here how ‘cutting-edge’ US equipment is anything but.

it is in my view also a mistake to refer to a ‘focal point’ of imperialism. there is no oz beyond the red, white, and blue curtain. neocons and liberals and people who couldn’t articulate a view but like money all have different views of iran, china, and russia. there are also disagreements on which to get first and what order. the USA in its arrogance is convinced that it stands astride the world and will conquer all while it can’t complete freedom of navigation operations against a country without a fleet. it will continue to bluster and make announcements as if all is proceeding swimmingly. even in the last ten years, the decline of USamerican influence is palpable. even the screwing of the EU reflects this. if you can get your vassals to obey without force, they are loyal. if you have to force the point (like nordstream), that means they would not have listened otherwise.

i appreciate your perspective comrade, but we have to have hope. and there can be no hope without revolutionary optimism

the line is ‘strikes at the operational depth’ of russia, and the tit for tat response would be russian strikes on staging bases in hungary and romania. kursk and belgorod are not at operational depth for the russian military, even though ukraine has been bombing them. you are very right about atacms being used to strike russia the whole time; jassms are worse/ cheaper missiles, and the move to those suggests the USA is out of missiles or willingness to send them off. i think the US war department made an announcement a few days ago along the lines of “we’ll let ukraine make deep strikes if they can show an actual plan.” this reflects that ukraine is increasingly stuck with terror bombing without an actual plan for victory

a provocative headline and a bit of a negative tone, but an interesting article from strategic culture. just for clarity’s sake, the referenced lavrov announcement was in june.

i think the critique of the ‘fence-sitting’ or ‘playing both sides’ from a (i believe) leftist perspective is worth keeping in mind, especially because the material interest of every country trying to join brics is doing so to play as many sides as they can. diplomats and states are not set out towards de-dollarization or ending hegemony as such, but rather towards what they see as prosperity, peace, etc. i don’t personally see brazil’s venezuelan election comments or india’s military industry as a dagger at the heart of brics+. that said, if brics really is going to be a meaningful international and economic forum for the global south, as many of us hope, they will inevitably have to manage and incorporate countries that want economic relations with the USA, Russia, and China.