I think #1 adequately represents the chance of nothing happening, which is pretty high all things considered.

Bit strange giving digital awards for their past games, not a big issue as I am sure some still play but still, seems, backwards?

I agree, I tend to stick around the ToW and stash any gear I may need to properly review until I am done farming, at which point I return to a big town like Kyovashad or similar and mill around there until I have done everything I need to.