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Currently very true. He's down in PA and he can't win without them. Bad sign for the "son of Scranton".
Michigan is a toss up, which he also HAS to win.
Down in Wisconsin. Minnesota is a toss up.
It's not looking good right now.
Can he change it at the Democratic convention next month? Maybe. Even odds that something happens to make it worse though.
That’s not what models say. It’s pretty much 50/50. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
And all the fashion models I hang out with are saying the same things. The models agree.
And if it's even slightly close, the SC hands it to the GOP.
Also, it should in no fucking way whatsoever be 50/50 , but here we are.
If it's 50/50 in a national poll, Biden will lose by several states in the EC. No SCOTUS intervention required.
I don’t understand how this is possible with the current polling consistently showing a Trump edge and his structural advantage in the EC. Worth noting that ABC inexplicably laid off Nate Silver and he took his model system with him. I imagine they’ve built something similar to replace it but it remains untested compared to their past predictions.
That said, Biden clearly has a chance to win, so I think Axelrod may be overstating it here. But Trump does seem to be a clear favorite from the available information.
You’re not going to change my mind on fashion models. Even when they’re wrong, you’re better off just shutting your mouth so they let you in the club. (Or clüb for my continental friends.)
I think Nate Silver is clever but not a rigorous intellectual. His “model” is not even open source, and predicting presidential elections has 50ish data points and fewer than 10 that are uncertain. He made a good model but it is what it is: a model of the last election. (Nothing has changed. We can assume it’s the same as last time, right?)
I also just assume he’s gonna get on the right wing grift circuit before too long. One last score is saying “woke is bad.” And he can justify anything to himself.
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/16/nate-silver-polymarket Nate Silver did, in fact, do the right wing grift thing.
(Nothing has changed. We can assume it’s the same as last time, right?)
I’m hoping you dropped the /s,
Immigration voters (well the dem-base immigration voters,) the Muslim vote. He’s always been soft with women and the black vote.
And he barely squeaked it out last time. Anyone who’s telling him he’s likely to win is lying through their teeth. Probably because of there’s a new pres, they’re likely to lose their jobs.
Details.
All good points, I’m not necessarily saying Nate’s is better, just that the fivethirtyeight model is probably different from past years.
There’s also the economist which shows Trump a 3/4 favorite. I have little knowledge of their methods or history so take that with a grain of salt but it’s worth considering.
Data aside, the GOP has been uniting over the RNC and joining hands for their support of the candidate while the Democrats are imploding and casting doubt on themselves left and right. Will be curious to see how things shift in terms of polling. But at the end of the day, we have two very different candidates with different values. Would not surprise me to see a shift like we did in France and UK where last minute coalitions tip the scales.
It's easy to complain now about disliking one candidate over another, but when left with the final decision at the end of the day, things change.
Minnesota is as much as a toss up as Alabama
You say that... buuuut...
Minnesota: Biden+2 to Trump+1, pretty much the definition of toss up.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Alabama: Trump+19 but that was a couple of months ago.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/alabama/
2020 Trump won Alabama by 25.46 points.
Come visit rural Minnesota
Rural anywhere, really. All Trump, all the time.
Fuck it is… I don’t like Biden, but my vote is anti-Trump so….
If by very slim they mean functionally impossible, then yes I agree.