Using a tactical nuke is the fastest way to ensure the rest of the world beats you into oblivion. Hell, China and the US would probably team up to stomp on Russia if they tried to pull a stunt like that.
this post was submitted on 22 May 2024
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It all but guarantees escalation, from which no one benefits.
Least if all Putin, as it would be the end of Russia.
China is Russia's greatest friend right now. They probably would not.
Not sure if friendship accurately describes the relationship between Russia and China.
I think it is a very opportunistic and imbalanced relationship. With Russia having little alternatives, and China gladly taking advantage of cheap resources and selling opportunities.
I can't see China sticking with Russia for ideological reasons the second the situation becomes unfavorable for them. In that case they'll drop them like a hot potato and swoop back in to profit once the dust has settled again.
But you are right that they might not team up with the West and rather choose to just sit on the sidelines. At least as long as no one forces them to pick a side.
I think if China were to finally invade Taiwan, they would became even closer. And it seems like they're moving closer to that decision.
Yet another reason why Russia should be denuclearized (how you spell that), and probably split up in 4-5 countries.
Ah shit here we go again
No more limits on aid then. Sanctioned forever.
Using nukes is probably the fastest way for Russia to end sanctions. There would be no need for sanctions once NATO ends Putin's government.
I somehow have the feeling that before Putin goes down, he'll just push the "send all nukes" button.
This still relies on humans carrying out these orders, which, historically, they have never done (Cuba Crisis, false alerts in the USSR). Putins button isn't wired to the ICBM launcher.
I don't think the button was ever pushed. Cuba crisis came very close and the false alerts were automated messages that were correctly deemed as false by the commanders. As far as I know there has never been a direct order to fire that got denied.
Yes, but it still comes down to the fact that it is at least unlikely for the entire chain of command down to the person who launches the nukes to look in the eye of the annihilation of society as we know it and still advance/carry out that order. In every situation where humans were faced with an order to launch, they decided not to carry it out so far.
Doesn't it also take a few minutes to go through the launch procedure? So they'd have time to think
Putin uses 1st nuke.
Nato strikes back conventionally
Putin orders all nukes.
Kid at a computer ordered by putin to launch all nukes - am I the baddy?
I have a different interpretation of those close calls: we were very very lucky and should not rely on defiance as a mechanism to avoid the apocalypse.
I've seen an interview with a former CIA spy who used to work in the bunker where they would have to insert rings (two of them) if an order came that said to launch nukes. They preselected them all on a psychological profile and, importantly, they did drills that they didn't know were drills. So they never knew whether the command coming in was real or not. They "launched" every single time.
I can very well imagine that this kind of "loyalty" would be tested in Russia as well.
They preselected them so well that a CIA spy worked in the bunker. I wonder where else along the chain there might be CIA spys.
That also raises the question of how many of Russia's nukes are still viable, and how many of their ICBMs will work properly. There is also the factor of how effective the anti ICBM system that America explicitly does not have in orbit would be. 🤔
I know it’s not what it meant, but I had these visions of tactical nuclear powered drills….
A tactical hole here, a tactical hole there.. these nuclear drills are great.
But once you start a tactical nuke drill… how do you stop it?
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Russia on Tuesday announced it has started tactical nuclear weapons exercises near Ukraine, as Moscow again accused the West of being "provocative."
The Kremlin's Southern Military District troops "are practicing combat training tasks of obtaining special ammunition for the Iskander operational-tactical missile system, equipping launch vehicles with them and covertly advancing to the designated position area in preparation for missile launches," Russia's defense ministry said in a statement Tuesday afternoon.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made veiled nuclear threats toward the West for years, since he began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, leaving tens of thousands of people dead, and towns and cities in ruins.
Western allies have supported Ukraine with military equipment to help Kyiv fend off Putin's aggression.
Military personnel "involved in the exercise practise equipping aviation weapons with special warheads, including the Kinzhal aeroballistic hypersonic missiles, and flying into designated patrol areas," the Kremlin added.
Earlier this month, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov accused French President Emmanuel Macron and "British representatives" of provoking Russia's nuclear escalation, after U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron said during a trip to Kyiv that Ukraine could strike Russia with British weapons, while Macron has floated the possibility of sending Western troops to fight in Ukraine.
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They're really playing with fire...