I believe this will increase the fediverse population, but ultimately I see a new centralized service emerging soon. Though, I do hope the fediverse becomes the prominent place for social content!

I think the issue with the Twitter->Mastodon conversion is that this style of social media is about following people and therefore people will stay where the people they want to follow are. So it becomes a bit of a difficult situation where people won't move as a person they want to keep in touch with won't move which means more people won't move.

Reddit->Lemmy likely won't have the same problem as this style is about following content rather than people.

It’ll definitely happen, but it remains to be seen whether people will actually stay. For all we know, this latest Twitter thing could be resolved this week and people will come crawling back because they’ve built up a network/following there. Something like that is really hard to destroy, and even then I think it’s far more likely that a commercial product with a large budget and fancy apps takes in most of the users.

I also feel like the Twitter brand is still too well known to die forever. Even if it goes away for a while, someone else will buy it and bring it back.

The problem with Mastodon is that they don’t have very many major entities actively making posts. The main thing I track on twitter is OSINT and US politics, and that community basically doesn’t exist on Mastodon right now

I think we shouldn't expect to see the same sort of migration from Twitter to Mastodon like we did for Reddit to Lemmy. Because of network effects, Mastodon will have a much harder time attracting refugees. What you can hope for is more of a slow drip as Twitter users get fed up with the platform. Every migrant to Mastodon makes it that much easier for the remaining Twitter users to move as well.

I'm hopeful but I wouldn't count on it.