Impossible to say now, but definitely quite a lot of them are not going to be regular users. I still hope/believe the majority will stay though.

I can guarantee I won't be going back to reddit on mobile if they go ahead with the API changes. I may occasionally use reddit on desktop but 99% of my reddit usage was on mobile via Sync.

Once they get rid of old.reddit (which they inevitably will) that will force my hand and I'll have to fully move to Lemmy. As luck would have it, the developer of Sync is considering re-purposing it to run on Lemmy which would be perfect for me.

I have no intention of installing the official Reddit app. I’ve used Apollo for years and I’ll leave once it’s no longer an option. The way Reddit treated the Apollo developer is inexcusable.

I managed to quit Twitter, I’m certain I can quit Reddit too.

I will likely go where Reddit Sync goes. I don't really mind if the content here isn't as vast as on Reddit, if I have Sync I have all that I need

Probably a good chunk, I don't mean to be pessimistic either but that's how it usually works on "big" movements.

Some people follow the flow because they're caught into the enthusiasm of the moment while not being actually convinced about what they're doing, those people are highly likely to go back when things are back to normal (tho in my opinion reddit will never be "normal" again).

How many they are is impossible to tell.

The blackout is only the first wave, there will be another one IMO when 3rd party apps actually shutdown (June 30th), after that, things will settle and population on lemmy will lower, that's not a bad thing IMO, it doesn't do any good to have people here that don't actually want to be here.

As for me, since I joined I'm doing my best to be involved in lemmy communities with the specific purpose of not missing reddit anymore and not care anymore when they'll break old.reddit (they will like their doing with the API).

I already feel at home here, I'm not going drastic as to nuke my reddit account or anything, tho I'll most probably make a GDPR request and leave for good.

If there's one demographic of users likely to stick with the fediverse it's going to be redditors.

I don't think the kind of people who are willing to try out some geeky experiment of a social network are totally dependent on Reddit culture.

Exodus from one network to another (or to nowhere) is a thing that's happened in the past, and if anything, people aren't willing to go back once they finally take the effort.

Tho I'm guessing lots of people have multiple accounts such as alts for r34, and may keep using those until Reddit finally shuts off all nsfw.

No idea - but I actually think the Fediverse concept maps to Reddit way better than it has other social networks so I could see some iteration of this really catching on over time.

For something like Twitter, the whole value proposition is "one big universal conversation" and the federated stuff gets in the way of that a little bit, but Reddit has always been a federation of communities (who occasionally fight, join together, cross post, etc) - that maps really well to this stuff.

What is reddit again?

It depends on how many communities migrate from reddit to lemmy. I will definitely not return to reddit on mobile once third party apps are shut down, but if reddit changes their stance and third party apps come back, I may go back if most of my communities haven’t migrated to lemmy.

Even if I get bored here, I won’t go back.

I’ll still always rely on Reddit for obscure answers to questions when googling, but I plan on staying with Lemmy once Apollo is taken down. I’ve been trying it out and adjusting to it during the blackout and as long as the community stays somewhat consistent, I like it here more. Reminds me of when I first joined Reddit over a decade ago.

I usually wont quit an app over changes like this but Reddit to me is different. I like Reddit for being a place to find new communities to join and interact with what’s popular, and since the spez ama and the removal of 3rd party apps I just don’t trust it to stay that way anymore. The last thing I want to see Reddit become is another infinite scrolling content feed that an algorithm thinks you’ll like so you never want to stop scrolling. And I’m assuming since they just want to seek profit that’s what it will eventually become.

Doesn't matter, this is how these things gain traction. It's all about trends, especially on social media, baby.

I'm probably going to start using Reddit again when the blackout ends and keep using it until the end of the month, but once RIF stops working I don't see myself going back. The way I see it, the last couple of days have been a nice stress-test period for Lemmy, but the real exodus will start in July.

Not going back unless I’m looking for some obscure piece of knowledge. This fulfills my needs for news and conversations about niche topics. Hoping this keeps growing and new mobile apps come out to support it

Personally, I like it here and will probably stick around. I hope the servers can scale, and that new communities grow.

I'll still wind up looking at Reddit for meme content until it turns up here. There's a lack of goofy pointless shit here currently.

I intend to return after the blackout. At least for the rest of June. It is said multiple times, that this is just the first step for many subreddits.

I will continue using Lemmy and use Reddit only for specific communities. If there is no chance in sight on Reddits behalf, the communities can work on travelling to alternatives properly and this needs time and planing.

As of now, this exodus is more like a panicked escape. At least one community I am from means business and I would like to support them as much as possible.

As a near strictly mobile only user of Reddit for nearly 10 years, they have made the decision for me by forcing everyone to use their completely horrible app. On the rare occasions at work that a search result populates with a Reddit result, I'll probably still go there, but using an adblocking browser.

To me it is extremely difficult to justify Reddit actually achieving a worthwhile IPO when their product is reliant 100% on user generated content and volunteer moderation. As an investor, I would be concerned about the longevity of a forum that doesn't have adequate moderation tools, shows hostility against their own userbase, and a complete disregard for their own "AMA rules".

Reddit is dead. They have struck their own final blow.

I'm staying here, the community is way better. I'll use both but only post and comment on Lemmy

I think I'll have a look in a couple of days. But if they go through and kill 3rd party apps that's goodbye from me.

I'm not here because lemmy is better right now, but because I want to move towards open platforms and a better future. It's an investment. Deciding to move right back to reddit 2 days after they just stabbed you in the back is shortsighted in the extreme. Reddit will not stop until it devours itself and you along with it. Disabling the API is only the latest in a long line of anti-user changes in favor of money, and you can be sure there's more on the horizon.

I'd encourage anyone who isn't 100% satisfied with lemmy and its user experience right now to give it some leeway, because you're comparing the experience to reddit apps that have had years and years of polish. With a community and donations to servers and developers, we can quickly fix the most egregious papercuts. These are growing pains, and they won't last forever.

It depends on whether someone's a member of the community or just because they want to scroll some epic memes. I expect many people are of the latter category and probably don't even understand what the fuss is about.

It's not like I'll never look at Reddit again if there's useful info on it but I won't be part of the Reddit community again after the scorn and disrespect they showed it - I hope to help build something new over here.

I can't do anything about Reddit's decisions but I can vote with my attention and help to build a compelling alternative.

I like it here actually.

If my communities end up dying, then I'll be forced to move back but like I said, I like it here

Depends upon how many people come over here and how much content gets posted. If most communities are ghost towns a lot less people will stay, if it stays interesting more people will stay. Long term depends how quickly devs can catch up in terms of features and user experience.

For me personally, I'm just here for the ride and I'm curious how things go. On reddit I am only apart of smallish communities and sort by new, so this kinda works even if it's not a bunch of niche subs with stuff I'm into. On reddit I kinda comment and move on, and maybe here I can break the habit of completely ignoring my inbox 😅

The users will go where the content is.

If reddit has 90% of the content it will get 90% of the users. If it has 90% of the users they will generate the content.

It's a chicken and the egg problem that will only changes when someone drops the egg.

I'm sure there will be a huge downtick, but there's also people like me who heard about Lemmy because of Reddit but this is totally something I'd support. Now that I know it's here, I have a source for my cat videos and obscure video game recommendations, I don't really need the activity and tumult of Reddit. I'm sure there are dozens like me. Dozens.

It depends on a lot of factors, depends on twitter response and what the mods chose to do about it.

Personally, with the twitter shenanigans, I stopped paying for their blue thing and don’t use it unless someone links to it. So my Twitter usage has down to the floor.

I may take the same approach to Reddit. There is still time to change course, but I’ll go where the crowd goes, and keep tabs on alternatives. I will stop paying for premium and don’t open it as much, and hope Lemmy keeps me occupied enough.

Every day, I open jerboa and see like 5x more communities with a lot of activity. If we can keep up this level of growth for another week or so, then i don't think I'll miss Reddit much. Especially if i really have to download the official app. On the other hand, if Reddit backs down at the last minute and agrees to allow third party apps, then i could see lemmy users going back to Reddit out of habit.

I like Lemmy much more than reddit and found it harder to use before due to the lack of people. Now that there are more people it's even more fun and I'm hoping others feel similarly :) I don't see a reason to go back to reddit

What will make me return to reading Reddit is all those old posts and comments on very specific topics. It doesn't mean I'll stop using Lemmy (especially if some communities I follow migrate here entirely), but there's no proper replacement for Reddit yet.

Also, I've found no app for Lemmy working on Android 7. For Reddit, I'm using Stealth: it's incredibly useful that you can create multiple pseudo-accounts with different subscription lists and saved posts without ever logging in or having an account. API changes are a sad development, but Stealth has an option to work by scraping old.reddit.com - unless they happen to delete it, of course.

The real test will be when the apps go dark at the end of June.

They're starting by going private for 2 days, but almost unanimously they will continue for longer if reddit doesn't concede. Specifically some of the biggest subreddits like funny and videos, those won't be coming back unless reddit backs off or replaces the moderators.

I'd like to think that the fedi/lemmy space will be a nice place to still participate in, even a person decides to go back.