First, I disagree that Russia saw Ukraine as turning into a long war. They thought they were going to blitzing into Kyiv and force a change of government. They thought they would do the 1968 Prague thing and it would just be over. He did not expect to still be fighting almost two years later.

Second, if they can’t manage to properly invade a country on their own border after being able to set their own timelines, position their troops and plan supply lines, and draw up plan after plan for contingencies- there’s no way they open up a second front, especially against a NATO country.

This is just saber-rattling in order to try to scare European countries from continuing to send weapons to Ukraine.

[–] Buffalox@lemmy.world 16 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

This is just saber-rattling in order to try to scare European countries from continuing to send weapons to Ukraine.

I think it's more Ukraine warning us about the importance of Europe and NATO continuing to help Ukraine.
Because if we don't help, and Ukraine falls, Russia can and will continue.
But I seriously doubt Russia would want to try their luck against all of NATO acting in full on article 5 to defend a member state. Especially now when it has been shown how poorly their military performs. So the Baltic countries should be very safe from Russian invasion.
But it seems Putin still hasn't realized how crazy his decision to invade Ukraine was. So he might continue to be crazy as in outright insane, and believe he can take on NATO.
But more likely IMO, Russia would move against non NATO states like Kazakhstan.

[–] AlteredStateBlob@kbin.social 8 points 11 months ago (3 children)

If anyone thinks that Russia does not have plans to invade Europe at large, they are sorely mistaken. I bet Ukrainians do find such plans fairly often.

Question is when they will attempt to act on them. I agree, it would be fairly insane to open a second front. Then again, I thought it was fairly insane to open the first one.

[–] MrMakabar@slrpnk.net 5 points 11 months ago (2 children)

I gurantee you NATO has those plans as well only to be able to react quickly, if Russia does something. They would be modified, but it would be a usefull bases. So the question is if Putin wants to invade and that is less likely.

[–] AlteredStateBlob@kbin.social 2 points 11 months ago

Exactly.

[–] CatChucks@mastodon.social 0 points 11 months ago (1 children)

@MrMakabar @AlteredStateBlob
Sure. Ukraine will have to fall due to lack of American support after Trump elected. The USA under Tram also will not exist as we know US now. Russian money, useful idiots and American people will do that.

[–] MrMakabar@slrpnk.net 2 points 11 months ago

Right now most support for Ukraine comes from European countries and not the US. The biggest single donor is the EU and its members donate even more individually. I can see Ukraine having a problem going offensive, but the support should be enough to not be overrun.

That is if Trump is elected, which is not a given. After all Biden has won an election against Trump before.

Even if Trump gets elected and Russia invades, the EU is far from being weak. The EU has more soldiers then Russia, with a bigger population, which are better equiped and a much bigger economy. Adding that to your enemies list is just dumb. Not that Russia is the brightest.

[–] echodot@feddit.uk 4 points 11 months ago

I'm sure they have desires to attack NATO but I don't think planning is really their strong suit.

[–] LordR@kbin.social 3 points 11 months ago

Didn't Colonel Potato from Belarus even give us some spoilers on the plans to invade Moldova next?

[–] UFODivebomb@programming.dev 4 points 11 months ago (1 children)

How much has their disinformation about the war impacted their own ability to understand what is going on?

[–] Ulara@sopuli.xyz 5 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

Very much: https://thehill.com/policy/international/europe/596023-condoleezza-rice-describes-putin-as-delusional-erratic/

https://www.businessinsider.com/former-us-ambassador-to-russia-says-putin-increasingly-unhinged-2022-2

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/03/01/nation/i-personally-think-hes-unhinged-analysts-question-putins-mental-state-after-ukraine-invasion/

[–] bouh@lemmy.world 3 points 11 months ago (1 children)

There is a universe in which Russia could be encouraged to open a front with nato to allow China to attack Taiwan IMO.

Imagine there is war in Eastern Europe, Israel and Taiwan at the same time. Tensions are rising in Kosovo too. I don't think there's a worst case scenario for nato.

But I don't think China is ready for this. In this universe, China would like the war in Ukraine to last for a few years still.

[–] echodot@feddit.uk 6 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Russia attacking a NATO country would not remove US military forces from Taiwan. The US has the largest military force in the world they would be more than capable of sending some troops to Europe and keeping some troops in Taiwan.

Hell they probably don't even need to send any troops to Europe. Russia hasn't exactly proven itself to be a capable or sophisticated adversary, they have completely failed to effectively prosecute a war in which conventional air combat is basically non-existent. If they were to go into a NATO country they would absolutely be dealing with extensive air operations of which they would have no ability to defend against.

[–] bouh@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago

You're underestimating the strain of the Ukraine war on ammunitions I think. Western industries are not ready for war economies. In the US or in Europe a brutal shift may even be politicaly destabilising, as the far right is already fighting to stop fighting Russia.