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This is an incredibly long article, mostly rehashing old information. Tl:dr is this. The war will take 4 to 6 years. It is irrelevant that Russia has more people as they don't have the kit or tatics. The battle has become one of artillery attrition. Ukraine is getting stronger and Russia weaker. There will be a sudden breakthrough when the Russian army is exhausted, but don't know when.
The last 4 or 5 paragraphs are worth a read from, "UKRAINE IS GROWING STRONGER, AND RUSSIA WEAKER" onwards.