this post was submitted on 12 Aug 2024
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No Stupid Questions

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Idk, when you look at the entire picture, does Trump not have the far easier path to 270 this year? He only has to win 2 states (PA & GA) and that’s it, he wins. Kamala has to win at the minimum 3, and if she loses PA, it becomes even harder for her. Trump could just spend all of his money campaigning in those 2 states and get back in the White House. Yet these odds seem to disagree with me.

Am I trippin?

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[–] morphballganon@lemmy.world 3 points 3 months ago (4 children)

You make it sound like T winning PA would be easy

I could just as easily say H winning Texas would put it in the bag for her

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[–] frankPodmore@slrpnk.net 2 points 3 months ago

You may well be right and that's why it's vital not to be complacent. Donate, volunteer, vote. Get out there and make a Harris win happen!

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 2 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (2 children)

Harris has to win 3 states, PA, MI, and WI. Losing any one of those three throws it to Trump.

It is going to be a nail biter!

[–] tate@lemmy.sdf.org 3 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Losing any one of those three throws it to Trump.

Unless she win NC or OH. She's doing really well in both.

I think this is going to be a giant blowout win for Kamala. But, please, no one get cocky! Everyone has to actually vote!

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 1 points 3 months ago

I don't see NC, OH, AZ, NV, or GA going to Harris. It's wishful thinking, but I wouldn't count on any of them.

[–] BadmanDan@lemmy.world 1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

That’s what I’m saying, I think MI will go to Harris, but if she loses PA, Trump just needs NV & AZ and he’s going back to the White House.

While if Harris loses PA, she HAS to win GA, there’s no path to victory for her without GA in this scenario.

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 2 points 3 months ago (3 children)

MI will be complicated because of the Muslim vote and Gaza.

[–] BadmanDan@lemmy.world 2 points 3 months ago (5 children)

I don’t think that’ll matter, Trump BARELY won MI in 2016 by less than 10k votes, and that was with Russian Psyop Jill Stein stealing votes from Hillary there.

In 2020, Michigan had the highest youth turnout in the country and Biden won it by 150k votes.

I don’t see how Trump can flip that state back, those are insane margins.

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[–] KingThrillgore@lemmy.ml 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Nate Silver still has the EVs for Trump. Like he did in 2016. I'm making no illusions of the future. All my plans assume a Trump victory.

Unfortunately his models are paywalled so I cannot completely confirm this.


Register to vote at vote.org

[–] andrewta@lemmy.world 0 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I personally believe trump will be president. It’s just a given at this point. Will I vote against him? Yes.

But I am a realist. It’s just what is going to happen.

[–] BadmanDan@lemmy.world 2 points 3 months ago

I am 100% voting for Kamala, fuck MAGA. But like you said, if we’re being realistic, thanks to the Electoral College and Protest Votes. Trump’s path to 270 is far easier.

[–] LunchMoneyThief@links.hackliberty.org 0 points 3 months ago (2 children)

If you totally unplugged from informational media, and went to live out your days engaging only in the things which bring you joy, would you be able to tell who the current sitting president was solely by indirect observation? People like to blame presidents for "the price at the pump" and other miniscule day-to-day things. But is there any substance to that?

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