this post was submitted on 06 Jul 2024
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I don't want Trump to be replaced with a "better" Republican candidate that is more likely to win, because I don't want Republicans to win.
I want Biden to be replaced with a better Democrat candidate that is more likely to win, because I want Democrats to win.
There is also no world in which actual Republicans will demand Trump exit the race, so it's silly to think Democrats demanding that would mean anything.
Based on recent polling, potentially most of them could surpass him with even a little bit of national exposure. No clue if it's too late, or not, but better to try than just concede the election to Trump.
The DNC was pressuring other potential Democrat candidates not to run during the Primary (including the most prominent names now like Newsom, Whitmer, and Buttigieg) from the get-go, so I guarantee they're not about to do a 180. The DNC would rather lose to Trump than run a candidate they did not ordain. Remember in 2008 when they did literally everything they could to stop Obama winning against Clinton until they had no other choice? Or 2016, which was a whole mess of undemocratic bullshit (that article is wild, and it was written by Donna Brazile, the Chairperson of the DNC during the 2016 election).
No one is talking about voting for Trump, what we're saying is that we don't think Biden is going to win against Trump. That's the reason this is worth spending so much time belaboring; to me, Biden is delivering us into Trump's hands.
If you believe Biden might win, then it's 'Chance of Winning with Biden' versus 'Chance of Winning with [Replacement]', and who really knows what their chances might be?
If you don't believe Biden might win, it's 'Assured Loss with Biden' versus 'Chance of Winning with [Replacement]', so obviously that would be the route to go.
(Accidentally deletedy previous post, sorry) but you make very good points. I wasn't saying I thought he was the best candidate, it was more that's what I thought their reasoning was for still running.
I overall also think someone else should run, that wasn't my point. More that we should be focusing on how awful a candidate Trump is (and all his crimes, victims, his horrible plans for office) - and while these are all excellent points, that the Democrat candidate is almost insignificant in comparison. The Democrats establishment should be on the attack, on the defense. (Being super general). Make that the motivation to vote Democrat.
American elections, in a nutshell, come down to this. Turnout. Motivate your voters to go to the polls en masse, and you win. There just isn't that many swing voters, especially in an election like this where both candidates have been President. The reason this has been catastrophic for Biden is that appearing to be old and out of touch tends to depress enthusiasm. Combine that with the short memories of the voters and you'll have people not bothering to vote because "both options are bad". As we get further and further from Trump's presidency, people's memories start to fade, they think to themselves, "oh, he wasn't THAT bad, we had more money back then." There's also lots of people who haven't heard about Project 2025, aren't paying attention to Trump saying that he'll be a dictator on the first day, etc. They will naively think to themselves that it can't happen here, that the U.S. is somehow special. Biden's margin of victory in some of the swing states was minuscule, and that was at the height of Anything But Trump sentiment. We absolutely cannot afford to have anyone stay home. Maybe some of the post Roe effect will help spur turnout. I don't know. But presidential elections are unfortunately just a popularity contest. I really do think we need to see if there's someone charismatic that we can roll the dice on. Because "Not Trump" won't be enough, and that's pretty much all Biden ever had going for him.