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Battery electric vehicles lose their spark in Europe as hybrids steal the show
(www.theregister.com)
this post was submitted on 20 Jun 2024
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Alright, time to do actual numbers.
18.000 is heavily influenced by all the people driving >100.000 km per year, unless that's the median, not the average. I'm far below 10.000 and still waiting for it to be worth it for me. I'll calculate with 10.000 for now.
Modern ICE cars need far less than 6l. A modern VW Golf for example only needs 4-5 l per 100 km (4.5 avg, and yes it actually is that low, I've been driving a modern VW Golf at the military a few times and have tracked my average fuel consumption there).
Gas currently fluctuates from 1.525 to 1.599 in my area, so I'm always only filling the car on Monday mornings when it's 1.525.
10 000 * 1.525 * 4.5/100 = 686.25€ per year.
Even if there's a major crisis like when the war in Ukraine started and the price goes up to 2€ per liter for some time and I'm at 1.8€ average for the year (I have never had such a high average so this is really stretching it), we get 10 000 * 1.8 * 4.5/100 = 810€ per year. Worst case, never happened before scenario.
Economic modern EV need ~16 kWh per 100 km. The average price per kWh at home is 0.2€ in my area.
10 000 * 0.2 * 20/100 = 400€ per year.
= 286.25€ (410€ worst case) per year saved (purely for moving the car), assuming I always charge at home. If I do longer trips on holidays and have to charge somewhere else that gap gets lower.
Even when adding less taxes, less repairs (but modern engines really don't need much repairing, even though they're much more complex than electric motors and wasting more energy) it will still will take a long time to break equal (probably never because I need a new battery before breaking equal).
If I have an average of 10k km per year that's 16.200€ for 200.000 km over 20 years with an ICE car at 1.8€/l (higher average than I've ever experienced) or 6.400€ for the same with an electric car at 0.2€/kWh (which is below my average of the last two years). Ignoring inflation for simplicity, just assume my salary goes up with inflation so percentually it stays the same.
If I need a new battery (10.000€, actually more but I'll just say 10.000 for now since they'll likely go down at some point) every 10 years then I'm just about to break equal after 20 years, right before going negative again by buying another battery.
You have an incredibly adversarial tone with that "actual numbers" as if mine aren't, so I'm not going to continue.
But I will point out I'm using averages and you are cherry picking low mileage per year, low fuel consumption, and low gas prices. And I'm guessing funny electric numbers to change 1/4 the cost of gas to nearly 2/3 the cost. And funny enough you are combining low mileage per year with moderately-high battery replacement rate. You are picking and choosing.
I meant actual numbers in regards to my last comment (the one you previously replied to) since I was just basing that one on calculations I did like a year ago. So now I made another comment where I used actual numbers instead of just roughly writing my conclusion from a year ago. It was not directed at your comment, sorry for the misunderstanding.
And I'm using low mileage per year because as I stated in the comment before this is about my situation, about if an EV is practical for me or if I'm forced to wait until they're getting cheaper. Currently I'm at around 5000 km per year, I use public transport a lot (and am not expecting that to change anytime soon).
Also the price per kWh is the average price per kWh in my area and is roughly the average I'm getting (I think I have 0.17€ rn since it's cheaper in summer but I also had 0.42€ already in winter so 0.2€ average really isn't high).
Battery replacement rate is based on this (first search result for ev battery degradation):
This means the battery is at 80% capacity after 10 years, which already drops the range below 300 km in winter for not insanely expensive EV. I do not have first hand experience on how many years a battery lasts, but even if it lasts 20 years (63% with this formula, although they do state that it's expected to decline quicker after longer usage, and current EVs wouldn't get my minimum 300 km winter range anymore) I'm still at break even point when buying a new battery after those 20 years.
That's why I'm holding off for now and just continue driving my reliable 25 year old Skoda, hoping for EV to become cheaper soon (all it takes is a new battery technology... the battery is why EVs are so expensive rn).
And your source is calculating with prices from 2019. Before COVID, before the Russo-Ukrainian war. I'm using numbers from this year.