this post was submitted on 24 Jul 2023
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Unless Apple drops the price of their devices by at least a third, it's not really going to happen.
Another thing to consider is that Jamf will certainly not be dominating the Apple MDM management solution arena in a decade either.
Companies with a mostly win estate with win infra, aren't happy with paying another $40 per user, per year for Jamf and Intune will be making up a lot of ground for a one shop solution, even if management is not as featured or complex as what Jamf offers.
The bigger problems Apple has are their enterprise device and user management, and the fact that many businesses are still reliant on Windows-only software.
Most companies I've worked for buy machines that usually aren't much cheaper than Apple equivalents, at least in terms of MSRP, despite the quality often being worse. My work-provided 2022 HP Z-Book 15 is more expensive as configured than my personal M2 14" MacBook Pro, and is still a shittier machine in just about every objective (and subjective) way I can think of. This is because enterprises typically buy business class laptops like Lattitudes and ThinkPads rather than lower cost (and less durable) consumer oriented machines. That said, it is not uncommon for IT departments at large enterprises to pay well under MSRP for these machines when buying in bulk.
This is my small company. We used to buy cheap computers (like even from Best Buy or Wal-Mart...the then CEO was super cheap), but then we (I) always had to deal with bloatware and just crappy computers that wouldn't last a year before I started getting complaints that they were slow or just acting up all the time. When he left, I started buying business-line computers directly from the OEMs. They're not necessarily cheap. The Dell and sometimes HP laptops we buy average about $1500. Even before the pandemic and inflation that was true.
On the other hand, I also support a handful of Apple users, mainly in the Marketing/Communications team, and all but one have M1 Macbook Airs. They cost like $800. And they're amazing. I bought a Mac Studio for our web designer/video & graphics editor and it only cost like $2000, I think. It too is a beast.
When I worked at a small MSP, some of the C-suites and biz owners I supported wanted powerful Windows laptops. Rarely for any work-related reason; they just wanted something better than the "peons." They sometimes paid around $2000 for them. And like you mentioned, they were often still shit.
Yeah, imagine the public sector in cash strapped nations battered by inflation all managing to move to apple in a decade, ain't happening.
Sticker price isn't that big a factor in enterprise in my experience. For one thing, Dell, HP, and Lenovo's enterprise PC lines are more expensive than their consumer lines, so the difference isn't all that big. Also, there have been many studies showing that Macs offer a lower TCO than Windows PCs.
I can see this happening, though it will vary widely by industry for sure. I've been working in roughly 50/50 Mac/PC offices for over a decade now. Users like Macs, Apple has good enterprise management and security features, and Microsoft is kind of shitting the bed with their cloud migrations. Microsoft lives by inertia and backwards compatibility, and they're throwing away that advantage by making these transitions difficult.