this post was submitted on 27 May 2024
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Image is of a flag ceremony to commemorate the launch of Operation Barkhane, which has since officially been terminated after its failure.

Chad, a country in north-central Africa, borders a lot of active geopolitical areas - Niger to the West, Libya to the North, Sudan to the East - but is scarcely discussed itself. I'm not really knowledgable enough to give anything like a decent history, but the recent gist is that the country was ruled for three decades by Idriss Déby until he was killed in battle in 2021 while fighting northern rebels. Idriss was part of a few wars - such as the one against Gaddafi in Libya, and also the Second Congo War. While he was initially elected democratically in 1996 and 2001, he then eliminated term limits and just kept on going.

After his death, Chad has been ruled by his son, Mahamat Idriss Déby. In early May 2024, elections began which were meant to result in the transition from a military-ruled goverment to a civilian-ruled one. Needless to say, Mahamat won the election - with 61% of the vote. Both father and son have been on the side of the French and the US, whereas the opposition is against foreign colonizers and has attempted to put pressure on the government in numerous ways to achieve a more substantial independence. France maintains a troop presence in Chad, and it's something of a stronghold for them - when French troops were forced out of Niger, they retreated to Chad. However, it's not clear even to the people inside Chad what precisely the French are doing there. I mean, we know what their presence is really for - imperialism and election rigging - but in an official sense, they don't seem to be doing much to help the country materially. What is clear is that they like to intervene on behalf of the ruling regime and against rebels a whole lot - the most interventions by France in any African country, in fact.

The United States, so keen on human rights and democracy in so many places around the world like Russia, Iran, and China, have - for some strange reason! - decided for the last 30 years that they can live with a couple dictators and wars in the case of Chad. In fact, various American state propaganda firms like the ISW and Washington Post have warned the current government about the Wagner Group interfering with the country and spreading anti-Western sentiments as in the rest of the Sahel.

Things are very tough for Chad. They are among the poorest countries in Africa and host about one million people fleeing from nearby conflicts, which is a pretty large number when Chad has a population of about 17 million.

With the French Empire fading, they are beginning to run out of places to retreat to in Africa. Macron, in January, said that his defense council had decided to reduce troop presence in Gabon, Senegal, and the Côte d'Ivoire, though has maintained troop levels in Chad and Djibouti. Meanwhile, on the other side of the planet from France, anti-empire sentiments are boiling to the surface in New Caledonia/Kanaky, which is unfortunate for the French military as they really need that island, both for the massive nickel reserves, but also as an unsinkable aircraft carrier in the Pacific just in case a conflict with China pops off.


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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 42 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (3 children)

Interesting things happening in the India elections. They'll soon be in the seventh phase of voting and on June 4th-5th, we'll probably have a pretty good idea of who's won.

The ruling BJP's slogan is essentially that - screw just a majority, we're gonna get 400 seats or more out of the 543 seats in government for our ruling coalition (the NDA). In the last election, the BJP got 303 seats, and the NDA as a whole got like ~350, so that's quite a few seats to climb to reach that goal. But even if don't reach the goal, they still have a majority.

Right now, major pollsters are estimating between 335 and 393 seats just for the BJP. Meanwhile, there's people in the opposition who are estimating that not only will the BJP not get to 400 seats, but that they'll actually fail to get even a majority. The reason why is some polling data, which doesn't show exact voter sentiment for the parties but instead on what issues voters care about.

  • 40% of those surveyed favour the BJP but satisfaction with the government is lower than in 2019, due to your regular suite of economic issues (inflation, poverty, unemployment)
  • The whole thing where Modi goes out and consecrates a temple over the ashes of a mosque or whatever fucked up thing they do, that was only a major source of satisfaction for 33% of NDA voters and only 23% of the electorate, so not exactly great returns on that.
  • Fewer respondents agreed that the government should get a second chance (44%) than in 2004 (48%), and the BJP lost that election.
  • 2019 was an election marked especially by total opposition chaos, and even in those elections, a full 75% of the electorate did not vote for the BJP.
  • The BJP won 60% (183) of the seats in 2019 by a margin of over 15%, so that's 40% (120 seats) of the seats that could be deemed vulnerable in an Indian election (where swings of 5-10% and up to 15% are pretty typical). And it won about 79 of those vulnerable seats with a margin of up to 10%. So if the BJP loses just half of the total vulnerable seats, or at least a big proportion of the more vulnerable ones (only a 10% lead in 2019), then it loses the election.
  • In 2019, the BJP got a national vote share of 37%. This was a plurality so it wins in a FPTP system, obviously. The issue with projecting too much from this is that the BJP's bastions get them large amounts of unnecessary votes (60% or even higher, when they just need a plurality), while their vote share in less BJP-friendly zones is considerably less sturdy. But all the voters in the bastions masks that effect on a national scale.
  • There's also obviously been the farmer's protests, which have dampened enthusiasm a little, too.
  • There's also some more in-depth analysis about Karnataka in there too which I'm not knowledgable enough to talk about really.

So what's the takeaway? IDK, I'm not an Indian elections guy. If I woke up to a big BJP majority in early June then I wouldn't be surprised. And there's probably a ton of electoral shenanigans just like in every liberal "democracy", which would favour the party in charge of the government during the elections. But it's at least statistically possible beyond mere blind hope that the BJP is at least having a tougher time than I had initially thought here.

[–] thethirdgracchi@hexbear.net 33 points 7 months ago

Yeah anecdotal reports I read in the FT line up with this, the BJP thinks they might be in a wee bit of trouble. Inshallah Modi loses.

[–] jackmarxist@hexbear.net 31 points 7 months ago

People here are stupid as fuck and care about their gods more than themselves. I'm certain the BJP will win and get an overwhelming majority because they're backed by the oligarchs who own the media and people have been indoctrinated 24/7 over the last ten years to become fascist and the BJP has fully utilised the rise of social media in India for this.

[–] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 14 points 7 months ago

FPTP is such a dogshit system