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Not according to the last two election vote-counts. That's been a problem for the GOP for a while. Anyone they throw up against Trump is too much of a corporate stuffed shirt or hick blowhard to top Trump's NYC Diva Energy. He's got a cult of personality in a way guys like DeSantis and Cruz and Romney could only dream of.
It cuts both ways, though. Sure, it gets his fans out in record numbers, but it also gets people who hate him voting in record numbers, too. I don't think we'd have had that 2020 turnout for Joe Biden without Trump.
When Bidencrats are concentrated in a few large states and Trumpies are diffused across a larger number of pivotal swing states, the electoral math favors the Republicans. And as Biden's own approval ratings crumble, people who would normally turn out to hate-vote against Trump are demoralized.
Trump won more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. And Biden only clinched the nomination by 40,000 votes across three swing states (all three of which he's currently trailing Trump in today). He was running a tighter margin than Hillary enjoyed in 2016.
Combine this with Republicans ramping up disenfranchisement efforts, fascist policing of minority communities, a chronically struggling economy, and a President whose declining health inhibits his ability to campaign, and I seriously doubt Biden will see 2020 turnout a second time. Meanwhile, Trump is once again poised to break GOP turnout records.
Yeah, he barely lost to Joe Biden. Biden vs Obama popularity isn't even a contest.
Obama was marginally more popular than Biden back in 2016, when Biden was significantly more popular than Hillary.
But in 2024, Idk. Neither of them have aged well.