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They don't have long range missiles. They can't hit anything outside of europe and the M.E. They're not ending the world, they'll just fuck up parts of it.
Here's a range map for the Jericho IV (YA-5) missile, which entered service in 2019. It's closely related to the Shavit 2 rocket, which can take an 800kg payload to LEO. The Jericho IV has a "rumored" nuclear strike capable range of 11,500km. Here is a Great Circle range map, showing this 11,500km range centered around Tel Aviv.
Israel also has 5 Dolphin-class submarines, each equipped with a 200 kiloton nuclear warhead with a 1500km range, providing an offshore second-strike capability or which could be used as part of the Samson option.
The entirety of the Israeli nuclear program is considered "rumored" despite hard data on specifications existing, so it's basically the one and only time where you can assume rumored information is correct.
Source: 2005 Congressional Research Service Missile Survey report and like, constant bragging from Israeli military brass about this.
Where are you getting the "rumored" range on that new jericho from? Idk if its an Intercontinental, and not just a ballstic missile? I thought they didn't have an icbm program, but maybe not?
It should be general knowledge at this point that Israel's MO is basically to tell you "no we're not doing this" while absolutely doing it and then all but openly bragging about it in Hebrew-language media.
General Itzhak Ben-Israel, former head of Maf'at (Israeli Directorate of Defense, Research and Development) said of the then in-development 3 stage extended range variant of the Jericho III "Everybody can do the mathematics... we can reach with a rocket engine to every point in the world." This three stage variant capable of 11,500km is the Jericho IV missile. That CRS Missile Survey document gives information on the Jericho III and technically the Jericho IV as the 3 stage version was spun off into that version.
I can't really give you harder evidence than a direct US government report that covers the missile in question, it's not like Israel (or anyone else) is just publishing the full spec sheets for civilians to peruse or anything. I'll admit that it does suck that the best documentation available on this is 20 years old, but feel free to submit a FOIA request.
Fair enough. Thanks :)
We also don't really know how a modern nuclear attack would play out. We have simulations but it's not an easy thing to simulate and the nature of nuclear attacks have changed a lot since the 40's