this post was submitted on 15 Apr 2024
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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 3 points 6 months ago

I think this has less to do with anti-communists/liberals. It's more of an argument for the US to remove its sanctions. If Maduro and the opposition sign this document, the US will be in a very bad diplomatic position, as it will be seen as not complying with its own agreements, since all the US asked for was elections and the participation of opposition candidates.

If Maduro wins this election (which the US agreed it's free and fair), the US will have no strong argument for sanctioning Venezuela. And that would be a political, economic and ideological victory for Maduro and the leftists of Latin America. And even if the US imposes sanctions again, Latin American countries, Spain and Norway will still trade with Venezuela, because there will no longer be the notion that Venezuela is a dictatorship and that Maduro is a dictator.

Furthermore, I doubt that the UN and EU sanctions will continue, even if Maduro wins. Removing the sanctions on travel and oil would really improve Venezuela's economy. This deal is very strange, but let's also remember that the Bolivarians are the majority of Venezuela's army and population. If a right-wing government wins, the situation will be similar to that of Nicaragua during the 1990s until 2005. The Sandinistas held enormous political power within society and the armed forces, but followed the agreement to allow the neoliberals to rule, but under a leash.

This lasted until the Sandinistas won the presidential elections in 2005. At first, they kept all the agreements with the US and even with Taiwan. The US even trained the Nicaraguan armed forces and sold them weapons. Then the US, under Biden, decided to get really aggressive with Nicaragua when China offered them to build their own canal. Ortega cut off all relations with Taiwan and the US.

Whatever they're doing, Petro and Lula are well-known negotiators and know how diplomacy works and how to deal with the US. Petro negotiated the end of the conflict with the FARCS, and Lula had the whole nuclear deal with Iran and was behind the resolution of the Venezuela-US crisis of 2006/7. Lula asked Bush to tell Condoleezza Rice to stop antagonizing Venezuela and let the Venezuelans solve the problem themselves. Bush listened to Lula and, in the end, Chávez and the opposition reached an agreement and recognized that Chávez won the 2006 elections.