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I think you've nailed it here. There is so much focus on the genetic advantage a trans woman has in women's sports, but at the elite level genetics already plays a determinative role. It's in every sport. I saw a video the other day on powerlifting. Sure, we all know that weight classes are important, but this video was about femur length. The guy with the world record for squat, in his weight class, has very short femurs, and the video showed the physics of how this gives him a purely genetic advantage in the squat over others who have trained just as hard and are just as strong. At the elite level where everyone is training hard and has good diet and coaching, the difference between winning and losing often comes down to genetic variation. It's not just purely physical advantages either. At the elite level, psychological fitness is also critical to success and psychology is also profoundly influenced by both genetics and early childhood development, which are not under the individual athlete's control. On top of that there are economic disparities. On average, a person from a very poor family is much less likely to end up as an elite level skier or hockey player.
There are so many genetic and social factors that contribute to success in elite sports that I don't think the women who are complaining about trans athletes have much credibility.
This is why I've felt that if we are going to stop trans women from competing with women, it's time to do away with the gender aspect of sport where possible. The Paralymics maintain ratings for the severity of disability that an athlete is overcoming. Why couldn't we do similar for natural ability in other sport, not unlike weight classes?
It's all very hypothetical, but with a perfect system we'd be seeing ability bands of athletes with a high confidence that the only difference between competitors is the effort and strategy that they put into their sport, rather than any kind of natural advantage. Men and women would occasionally compete together and it'd be great.
So just get rid of women’s sports?
In my hypothetical setup, I guess so? Are you concerned that no one would engage with anything less than the 'top class' of ability which would mean in many sports women would mostly be marginalised? Because it's a fair concern