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Unfortunately I think Trump will get back in
538 suggests that he's beating Biden in opinion polls, plus he's far ahead of any other candidate in the Republican primaries.
538 is bullshit. They are wrong as often as they are right. People don’t prefer Trump to Biden or anybody else for that matter. There’s just not a lot of enthusiasm for Biden.
Biden is old and boring. Otherwise, he and his administration have been competent. He has a lot of shit on his plate between the division in our country, war with Russia, and now Israel getting into shit at the worst time possible. Iran is also simmering over there and we have the usual shit from North Korea. Throw in relations with China and this administration has as many challenges as any in recent memory.
The upside is we have a great Secretary of State and the rest of the cabinet has been pretty solid overall. And don’t forget, the administration and the Fed managed to stave off a recession in the midst of all of this, which is a pretty difficult balancing act when dealing with all these external problems requires significant government spending. The Biden administration is doing a much better job than people realize.
In contrast, Trump fucks up everything he touches. Half these problems have his fingerprints all over them to begin with. A reasonable person knows he is not a good executive, even-tempered or capable of engaging with real leaders. This is a guy who turned a $5M judgement against him into $83M because he can’t control himself. He is stupid and reckless. Do you trust him to sit across from a guy like Xi Jinping? I sure as hell don’t. One of leads 1.6 billion people with an iron fist and the other is a clown masquerading as a mafioso.
For Trump to win, he would have to get a lot more votes than he did during the last election in which he was more or less trounced. I just don’t see that happening. Who didn’t vote for him last time and is looking at him now and thinking he’s the guy? He is the worst presidential candidate in the history of our country by a long shot.
The Republicans have been handed a series of crushing defeats in bi-elections post-Trump. I'm hopeful that it will carry into the federal election, especially if Alabama's "embryos are people" law survives the supreme court.