the_dunk_tank
It's the dunk tank.
This is where you come to post big-brained hot takes by chuds, libs, or even fellow leftists, and tear them to itty-bitty pieces with precision dunkstrikes.
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Why are there bets on people who aren't even running? Is this an algorithm or are there a lot of people convinced Biden is gonna die and get replaced with Michelle Obama of all people?
I've heard that theory before tbf but I'm astonished people believe it enough to put money on it. I think its a republican psycho thing maybe where they think its gonna be rigged for michelle obama because its their biggest fear?
I had a terrible nightmare that a black woman was president and forced me to eat a tomato
Looks like there's a "propose resolution" button where you can pay to propose adding options. If someone is willing to pay for it, why not I guess.
Also it says $1.9 million have been bet on Hillary Clinton winning. Who tf bet that? And $2.6 million have been bet for Kanye West. Who's just knowingly throwing away their money?
But yeah, for sure: prediction markets are the most rational way to make decisions.
It's a prediction market. It's kind of the inverse of normal gambling - instead of the ticket price being fixed and the payout being based on how many people bet that, the ticket price is based on how many people bet that and the payout is fixed. This also allows you to do stock market shit to your bets. It also means that the percents should be an accurate probability because of the efficient market hypothesis.
One of the various flaws of these things is that all of the bets are made by the sort of person who'd believe in the accuracy of prediction markets. So pseudo-intellectual, easily swayed by a semi-technical explanation, second option bias, believes in the efficient market hypothesis.