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Trump’s Red Flags: Polls Say a Conviction Would Doom His Campaign (www.vice.com)

submitted 8 months ago by MicroWave@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

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Many voters say they don’t want a convicted felon in the White House. But do they mean it? And can prosecutors get to trial before the vote?

Can anything stop former President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign juggernaut, now that Trump has all but crushed his GOP primary opponents and pulled ahead of President Joe Biden in national polls?

While November is a long time away, and plenty could happen before then, voters do say Trump has a massive weakness: A potential criminal conviction. In poll after poll, lots of voters who shrug off Trump’s four indictments say they wouldn’t support him if he’s convicted of a felony. If they mean it—or even if a big chunk of them do—they could easily be enough to keep him out of the White House.

What remains to be seen, of course, is whether they mean it—and, crucially, whether prosecutors can put Trump on trial in time for the rest of us to find out.

That makes prosecutors’ race against the clock one of the most important narratives of the 2024 election cycle, as teams of lawyers work feverishly around the country to overcome Trump’s efforts to gum up the gears of the judicial system and push the start-date of all his trials past November.

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[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 50 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

Getting it to trial before the election is not the issue, getting the conviction and sentencing will be.

Criminal trials aren't going to be like the in and out civil trials where he has already been found liable and they just need to determine by how much (E. Jean Carroll and the Trump Org, or even the Rudy Giuliani defamation trial). There was no question of guilt or innocence.

His lawyers will, and already have, pull every trick in the book to delay, delay, delay.

If you're trying to keep track of where we're at in the Trump prosecutions:

Updated 01/29/2024

Washington, D.C.
4 federal felonies
January 6th Election Interference
Investigation
Indictment
Arrest <- You Are Here
Trial - March 4th, 2024, one day before Super Tuesday primaries.
Jack Smith had requested that the Supreme Court immediately rule on Trump's immunity defense, the Court rejected the request, requiring it to go through the usual appeals process first.
Conviction
Sentencing

New York
34 state felonies
Stormy Daniels Payoff
Investigation
Indictment
Arrest <- You Are Here
Trial - March 25th, 2024
Conviction
Sentencing

Florida
40 federal felonies
Top Secret Documents charges
Investigation
Indictment
Original indictment was for 37 felonies.
3 new felonies were added on July 27, 2023.
Arrest <- You Are Here
Trial - May 20, 2024
Conviction
Sentencing

Georgia
13 state felonies
Election Interference
Investigation
Indictment
Arrest <- You Are Here
All 19 defendants have surrendered.
Trial - A trial date of Aug. 5, 2024 has been requested, not approved yet.
Three defendants, Kenneth Chesebro, Sidney Powell, and bail bondsman Scott Hall, have all pled guilty and have agreed to testify in other cases.
The judge in the case has set a deadline of December 1st for all motions to be filed, expect a trial date at some point after that.
Conviction
Sentencing

Other grand juries, such as for the documents at Bedminster, or the Arizona fake electors, have not been announced.

The E. Jean Carroll trial for sexual assault and defamation where Trump was found liable and ordered to pay $5 million before immediately defaming her again resulting in a demand for $10 million is not listed as it's a civil case and not a crimimal one. He was found liable in that case for $83.3 million.

As a function of the January 6th and Georgia trials, there are now lawsuits in two states to bar Trump from the primary ballot based on the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment.

Colorado:

12/19/23 - The Colorado Supreme Court has ruled that Trump is not eligible for the primary ballot due to being barred by the 14th Amendment as an insurrectionist.

Minnesota:

11/8/2023 - State Supreme Court denies challenge, allows ballot access.

A long-shot write in candidate for President has also filed suits seeking to bar Trump from the ballot in Florida, Kansas, Montana, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Utah, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

His cases in Arizona, California, Idaho, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and West Virginia have been thrown out:

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/federal-judge-dismisses-trump-eligibility-challenge-in-arizona/

https://ballot-access.org/2023/12/17/john-anthony-castro-voluntarily-dismisses-his-california-anti-trump-ballot-access-lawsuit/

https://ballot-access.org/2023/10/12/john-anthony-castro-dismisses-his-idaho-lawsuit-on-trump-ballot-access/

https://www.wmur.com/article/new-hampshire-donald-trump-ballot-lawsuit-dismiss/45682757

https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/politics/2023/11/27/trump-keeps-right-to-be-on-presidential-ballot-in-ri/71720185007/

https://wvmetronews.com/2023/12/22/lawsuit-to-boot-trump-off-west-virginia-ballots-is-dismissed-because-plaintiff-lacks-standing/

[-] Zoboomafoo@slrpnk.net 9 points 8 months ago

Holy shit dude, this is a great list, well done

this post was submitted on 29 Jan 2024

200 points (94.2% liked)

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