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That's what we all thought in the last two elections, it didn't quite work out that way. Always remember that the last election was run on record turnout. So much turnout, in fact, that Trump not only got more votes than any Republican, he got more votes than any winning candidate before him. The only person in the history of the Republic who got more votes than Trump is Biden. Millions of people who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 saw what he did as President, said "I want more of that!", and changed their mind.
There will be no cavalry of centrist Republicans separating the GOP from itself.
You have pointed out valid points, but how do you explain the last midterm elections?
Historical trends indicate that Republicans should have swept the House and Senate elections. Instead the Senate remained in Dem hands and Republicans now hold the house with the slimmest majority in a hundred years.
Republicans didn’t show up in force for the social issue's that the party was pushing. They didn’t have an economic agenda and their foreign agenda was marginally pro Russian.
Trumps agenda is unchanged except he has a ton of vendettas and authoritarian views mixed in.
They're midterms, they are a lot less exciting for the retail voter if the top job is not on the ballot. Democrats did much better with turnout because there were a lot of states with abortion rights on the ballot. But since the midterms are normally boring, in those states Democrats were able to make the abortion thing the key driver for turnout.
This election has a lot more issues, both legitimate issues that the candidates need to debate on, and fake issues ginned up by the misinformation machine on social media. The same recipe that worked during midterms won't work when the tiktok feeds of the older GenZ cohort that Democrats are relying on is complaining about GeNoCiDe jOe....
(You see, the situation in Gaza, and the US support of Israel, are valid topics for discussion, but not if you're trolling overly simplistic talking points with the intent of blowing it all up).