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BattleBit Remastered - Update 1.7.2: Optimizations, Bug Fixes, UI updates
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When it comes to releases. The most important days to watch playercount/sales are day 1, week 1, week 2(typically numbers start to drop off due to players getting bored and jumping onto the next game) and week 4(long term).
If the player count survives week 4, then its likely going to stay
I don't know if it's as simple as that, but I think long term support, community engagement and updates are maybe more of an indicator of longevity, but there's definitely truth to what you're saying.
A lot of it is also just plain luck and timing. Look at Rocket League, there was a whole another proto-Rocket League (Supersonic Acrobatic Rocket-Powered Battle-Cars) that nobody really knew about on PS3 that had a very loyal cult following and look at how Rocket League blew up on the next iteration and how the devs keep updating and tweaking it still.
I don't know, it's all very complicated and I hope Battlebit keeps improving and the devs don't go crazy and hopefully it's not just a flavor of the month game like so many others before it.
Even if it ends up being a fad of the month and fades away, I think I got my money's worth just from how good these weeks have been. I do hope it sustains, though.
Of course its not the be all and end all, but its the major indicator for a games success out of the gate. Day 1 or even week 1 playerbase counts dont matter, its usually much after that shows if people are willing to play it at its current state and stay. Patches and updates exiat for those who stayed to have more content and potentially drive more users in, but for a strictly online game especially one that touts 128v128, keeping a sustained playerbase initially matters a lot for momentum.