Market Strategist Byron Wien passed away last year at the age of 90. For over 30 years whether at Morgan Stanley or Blackstone, Byron published a top ten list of surprises for the following year. I never read any of the articles that kept score on how well Byron’s predictions did since that’s not the point. They were an exercise in thinking against the grain about what might happen in an industry dominated by consensus. In Byron’s honor, for one time only, here’s my list of top ten possible surprises for 2024.

neat newsletter. I have a soft spot for capitalists who nevertheless face economic motivation to be truthful. You can get some nice stuff reading from a Marxist perspective and at the same time laugh at them complaining that the EU has been "underspending" (<2% GDP) on war.

Tidbits (emphasis mine):

We also expect wage inflation to decline based on the decline in advertised wages (second chart); observed declines in temporary help, manufacturing and overtime hours worked, unit labor costs, the “job switcher vs job stayer” premium, the share of private industries with rising employment and the voluntary quits rate; and rising female labor force participation. While negotiated pay raises are still at peak levels, union workers are only 7% of the workforce, below the 20%-30% range which prevailed during the 1970’s.

new wave of union militancy starting to show up in the data. fuck yeah

The problem for the US is the starting point; every round of fiscal stimulus brings the US one step closer to debt unsustainability. I don’t think we’re there otherwise we wouldn’t recommend long duration US government bonds. We also wrote last year on how there has been no material change in the dollar’s role as reserve currency.

to give accurate financial advice, you have to recognize that the US national debt doesn't really matter much. JPMC also recognizes as realistic possibilities

a wealth tax
further pushback against pharmaceutical capital in the form of Medicare negotiation and stuff.

Estimates of US household excess savings

now that's a trendline, check out this graph. something funny will happen when it hits 0

China’s challenge stems from misallocated investment in real estate rather than from excess industrial capacity. Its home ownership rate peaked at ~90% and 20% of Chinese households own more than one home.

China’s 430 square feet of housing stock per capita is double the levels in Europe or Japan (D. Gros/Project Syndicate)

66% of US households own the home they live in. Whole section is interesting. Bigger Chinese households?