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How dramatically does the base metabolic rate change? Surely you can reduce caloric intake more than base metabolic rate would go down. I restrict my calories with great results, sometimes I'll do a 24 hour fast if I've eaten too much junk and I feel great afterward. I've kept my weight in check for years while restricting caloric intake. This is all diet, since I don't do exercise (I need to get better at that). I can see myself gaining all that weight back if I get into the mindset of "well, I lost that weight, I'm free to enjoy food without restriction again!" It's kind of like sobriety, it takes continual diligence to keep your progress.
Well sadly the answer is it depends. There are a lot of environmental variables along with a few biological variables. It is much easier for men than women to lose weight simply by cutting intake. How fast you cut calories can trigger starvation mode. People who eat a lot of refined sugar have a harder time. What your down time looks like(do you sit all day or do you have an active job) and one that we know has an effect but don't really know how much, is exposure to endocrine disruptors (like BPA). The biological machine is different for everyone.
But the short answer to your question is for people who are of low activity levels and difficulty with weight. It is usually recommended for them to have a slow reduction in intake to keep from triggering a starvation response and a slow increase in activity until your body adjusts to its new normal.
Oh and thank you for asking a question instead of just saying that you think this is dumb.
Thanks for the detailed response. Yeah, a lot of it varies from person to person which makes it tricky and prevents one-solution-fits-all advice. I looked up the change in starvation response and it seems like on average people will miss out on around 180 calories burned daily from this response. It's significant, but may be manageable depending on the person. All I know is that this approach has been working for me for 5+ years now.