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this post was submitted on 26 Dec 2023
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Oh wow. That CNBC article is conflating less inflation with deflation. And where they have to provide numbers they don't tell you how that 1 percent decrease in chicken is after a huge run up. (And every other product in the grocery section there.)
I knew CNBC was an economic gaslighter but this is Fox News level of wordplay to make people think the opposite of what the actual information says. Even to the point of saying less inflation is deflation. Inflation is a measure of velocity. Going slower is not going in reverse.
And the Forbes one is a paywall.
The basic problem here is that while inflation is slowing and wages are rising, inflation being a net negative against wages for a single year isn't enough. It's not enough to make up all the ground lost to inflation over the decades, and the run away inflation we experienced recently. As a reminder, this is 2023. The Pandemic effectively ended in 2020. Three years ago. So what was net inflation in 2021 and 2022?
Well gee I actually have those numbers. 3.7 in 2021, and 7 in 2022. That's net inflation, so inflation against median wage increase. The net inflation this year would need to be -10.7 to wipe out the difference created in those two years. We don't have full numbers yet but it looks like about 5 percent median wage increase and 3 percent inflation.
So you have -2 net inflation this year. Yay. We're still down by 8 points. But that's okay it's just a particularly big add to the 139 points we're down since 1974.