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this post was submitted on 26 Dec 2023
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politics
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Those articles sure dont reflect the reality of me or anyone I know, by even a smidge
Personal feelings aside, those are the numbers. Empirical evidence that what people think is just plain wrong. Why? I suspect what Biden is saying is true.
Empirical evidence says I still have to skip grocery trips, and cant afford to fix my car.
So... I trust my lived in life over your numbers
Me and everybody I know are doing great. My empirical evidence seems to disagree with yours.
Too bad nothing can be done about that. If only someone, maybe a government agency, could collect all the data and determine how the country is doing as a whole.
Saying "the economy is turning up and things are getting better" when nothing changed is a lot different than saying "its all going to hell" when no one is struggling.
If you dont grok the difference, you were probably not at risk of the economy fucking you over like how people are frustrated about
But things have changed, that's the point. While individual experiences vary, all the economic data this year has been pretty stellar.
Reducing inflation this fast without tanking the economy, and not just not tanking it, actually having pretty decent economic numbers is a major achievement.
When the Fed stated raising rates to curtail inflation almost everyone thought there was no way to do it without a recession, maybe a major one, and increasing unemployment 2-3X. The "soft landing" seemed like a naive hope. We're not all the way there yet but it looks like they actually did it. Inflation is almost down to targets and at the same time, unemployment is still low, GDP growth is good, real wage growth beats inflation, etc.
It's not all blowjobs and caviar for everyone but we were heading for a major disaster and it's been avoided.
Except food is still extremely expensive, and real peoples dollars arent worth more, or getting paid more. The economic data doesnt seem to take into account things that actually matter to people who dont wear suits and golf.
The thing is, a lot of these "rich people" metrics have indirect effects on "normal people" metrics. So yes, while saying "the economy is good" doesn't mean much right now, it means that normal people will hopefully not struggle as much soon.
Oh nice, trickle down economics. Its cool to see someone who hasnt seen the sun on 4 decades, how are ya feelin bud? Thats not been an economic statement anyone takes seriously in a very long time
E: this message is 5 days old, why am I only just now getting notifications about it?
Oooh, the delayed notifications are all from the same instance. Interesting, I guess my instance lagged on touching base with your instance? Thats really odd.
You keep saying that, but that's not what the data shows. It shows real wage growth is exceeding inflation. It's also starting to show deflation across several categories of goods.
It sucks your wages haven't kept up with inflation and maybe eggs at your grocery store aren't any cheaper, but the data shows that your experience isn't typical.
The typical experience is surprisingly good and getting better.
Yeah, you keep saying the data doesnt match reality, but last time the economy went to shit the data told us we were living a lie for 6 months before, magically, the data matched what everyone had been saying for a half year.
You think maybe, the data is fucking bullshit? Again?
Like how unemployment, the measured statistic, doesnt actually measure the unemployed? Just the recently fired who file for active job searching, and only for a specific window of time before they stop counting even if they are still jobless?
You think maybe, yet again, they are lying via statistics to try and make things sound good right before an election year? Since the data contradicts reality, and reality doesnt seem to give a shit?
Don't put words in my mouth. I never said the data doesn't match reality. I'm saying the data is reality, or are least the best measure of it we have.
You're the one insisting that your experiences are the only measure of reality, and since the data doesn't agree, it must be bullshit, instead of the much more likely explanation that your experiences aren't typical.
I'm not sure what you're referring to with the "6 months" thing, but if you're talking about the inflation rate spiking, the data wasn't wrong, the interpretation was. The data showed inflation up, every month, but the Fed thought it was "transitory". Eventually they realized "oh shit" it's not transitory and took action to bring it down while trying not to cause a recession at the same time. I'm no fan of the Fed in general, but credit where it's due, it looks like they did a damn good job.
I'm well aware of all the various measures of unemployment, and they're very good. Both short and long term unemployment are below what used to be considered maximum employment, and have been for a while. Underemployment is historically low. And after controlling for boomers aging out, workforce participation is trending upward. More people are working, more people are working full time, in jobs they're trained for (as opposed to having to take jobs they're overqualified for), and their wages are growing faster than inflation.
No, I don't think there is a vast conspiracy of thousands of federal workers, normal career employees, not political appointees, publishing fake numbers. The raw data is public and so is the origin. No one disagrees on what the numbers are, just what spin to put on it. Often, for political reasons, people will try to put a bad spin on good numbers, or a good spin on shitty numbers, but the numbers themselves are not in question.
I think you've been taken in by someone who wants to put a bad spin on good numbers. Numbers so good, if you had told me you thought we'd be here a year ago I would have laughed in your face.
Maybe, just maybe, the people doing well aren't lying to you, there isn't a conspiracy of government workers, and things are as all available data suggests.
Maybe your experiences just aren't typical.
Pffft, if you think the way the american gov measures the unemployment stat is very good, its maybe not me with the atypical experience. Hard to take you seriously with a statement like that, good lord
What else do you want? There are numbers for short-term, long-term, actively looking, stopped looking, workforce participation, and underemployed both part-time who want full-time and full-time in a low paying job because they can't find anything in their field. They also have trends and more granular breakdowns in each category.
Enlighten me, what else should be reported? People who wait tables but dream of being a movie star or pro athlete?
For the already wealthy
Fixed it for you.
TL;DR - Don’t be a poor.
You still need the votes of those for whom wages have remained stagnant while their bills continue to rise. Brushing off people's lived experience is pretty much directly telling them "you don't matter."
~Yall this is NOT empirical, but anecdotal~. That said, I wish you prosperity and only happy feelings (:
edit: I am sarcasm blind, apparently
Yeah...we know. It's pretty clear wildginger was using it sarcastically and I was using the same words as them.
Oh ok sorry! It seemed maybe wildginger needed my pedantry more maybe. (っ^_^)っ💗
You would be wrong on that front as well, thanks
~I retract all pedantry and replace it with only positivity and good vibes then 🤗~
I stand corrected
^edited to hopefully seem more genuine
Is the condescention really necessary bud? I dont think anyone asked for it
I am being serious! I'm sorry if it came off any other way
edit: i... am :'(
Everyone has personal experiences which shape their thinking, that doesn’t mean their thinking is correct or even any more true than someone else's. I can trust that I feel what 2 feet is on a board, but it's better if I measure it before I cut it.
If I want to measure a board, I don't consult a magazine*. I use a tape measure.
Similarly, if I want to know how I'm doing financially, I'll check my bank account balance before the network that continues to employ Jim Cramer.
*even if I were measuring in potrzebie, I would convert from the imperial units already on my tape measure instead of hunting down a copy of MAD Magazine issue 26. I respect Donald Knuth, but there are limits.