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While I don't disagree on the main points of your post, I'd like to counter by saying I think we are back on the rise. We see eastern movies more frequently make it to our cinemas (at least where I live), and a decline in interest when it comes to superhero stuff. We had a Norwegian movie outsell Aquaman the past weekend and that's wild. (I know, Aquaman isn't at the top of people's hype-list).
I myself also decided to make the choice to go and see more indepent films, attend screenings/festivals in my city and stop going to the marvel shows. It's been a blast and I'm loving going to the movies more than ever as a result!
It is possible we're back on the rise. Schafrillas Productions made a great video on youtube discussing how Disney+ is basically shooting themselves in the foot by overextending their brand and fewer people are seeing Disney movies in theaters because you can just wait to see it at home anyways.
But I do think high budget films will never go back to the times of well-intentioned competition where every movie is trying to earn audiences' hearts. From now on, they will always make movies with less risk and higher profit margins regardless of whether it could be a huge hit or not, because guaranteed money will always win over creative filmmaking
Yeah, no I think you are spot on in that last sentence. We, as viewers, enthusiasts and consumers can only vote with our wallets. I have spent a lot more effort trying to bring people to independent showing and movies that aren't the highest grossing/budget films.
But while that may be true, I definitely also went and saw Oppenheimer, Barbie and across the spider-verse.
But I think the whale, tar, Banshees of Inisherin, everything everywhere all at once, triangle of Sadness - all did fairly well at the movies, and despite being far from low budget indiemovies, I think that gives me a lot of confidence that cinema is alive and thriving!