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[Analysis] Will Frans Timmermans be the next Dutch PM on Wednesday?
(euobserver.com)
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this post was submitted on 20 Nov 2023
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It's a coinflip. There are currently three parties that have the chance to be the most voted one according to the most recent polls: VVD, NSC and PvdA-GL. If PvdA-GL comes out on top, there is a chance for them to form a coalition with all the left-wing parties and one centre party. According to surveys most leftist Dutch people are aware of this and consider a tactical vote for PvdA-GL to get a more left leaning government.
I don't think there's a big-enough centre party that would go for that, and I don't think that's what GL-PvdA is aiming for either. Rather, if they don't come out on top, what's likely to happen is that the right and centre-right parties would try (and probably succeed) to form a coalition together. If they do come out on top, GL-PvdA will instead replace one or two of those parties in that coalition, going for something like GL-PvdA/VVD/NSC.
And then, of course, the question is what will happen to them in the elections after that. But I'm sure the PvdA is very aware of what might happen.
NSC might be up for it. A colleague told me, that the PvdA did not take the option of a left-leaning coalition with a center party in the past, so they might not this time around either.
They might be, but the signs so far have not been in that direction: here's Omtzigt saying he'd rather have a right-wing minority government over GL-PvdA, and here's him playing up how hard he thinks it would be to govern with them.
I'd be interested in knowing which coalition your colleague is thinking of, but when coalition negotiations don't work out, it's pretty much impossible to point fingers to a specific party - clearly none of the parties were prepared to give more concessions.
Thank you. A left shift would be really nice.