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A couple dozen cry babies can't have the worst candidate imaginable, so the country gets to be paralyzed. And the nominee who was the best chance we had for getting past the stalemate had to be torpedoed almost immediately because he dared to support certifying the election, and wasn't "sufficiently loyal" to Trump. Oh, and he doesn't hate the gays. So despite literally being the guy responsible for trying to drive votes for the party's agenda and having helped get numerous other Republicans elected, his past history of not always licking their boots means he might as well be a damn dirty Democrat!
Honestly, if I was one of the moderate / establishment / non-insurrectionist / swing district Republicans in the house, I'd get together with a few of the others who have been holding out against the crazies and see if I can get 5 votes for Hakeem Jeffries in the next secret ballot. A nice shot across the bow and a reminder that they don't have to surrender to the demands of 20 extremists when there are 200 people on the other side of the aisle that might be willing to compromise.
Not that it would change many minds of course. The nutcase caucus will continue to try seize control and demand absolute obedience because they have nothing to lose. This just makes them more popular with their supporters, and shutting down the government is a net gain from their point of view.
It's possible that a small number of Republicans might negotiate with Democrats, but as we've seen, Trump and pals will try to target anyone who dares defy them. Can't have our leaders putting the good of the country ahead of loyalty to the only faction of the party that they care about. And while some might be willing to commit career suicide, they've already purged a quite a few members for having principles, there's only so many left.
Of course, that same sense of self preservation is one of the things preventing the more moderate Republicans from caving. They know damn well that they need to keep a healthy distance from the more toxic members of the party. So they'll probably be inclined to continue walking a tightrope for as long as they can.
As such, it's the great spineless middle of the party that I suspect will have to finally decide to actually do something useful. They all know that they'll be the ones taking the blame if a government shut down does happen, and the longer it goes on the worse it will be for them. Sooner or later, that starts looking like a bigger problem than whatever retaliation they might get from their own party for the crime of bipartisanship, especially if there are plenty of others joining them and giving each individual representative cover for doing the right thing. And if they cross the MAGA "No" line and install a speaker that by necessity works with both parties to actually get things done, the intransigent members of the party might suddenly find that they are irrelevant and inconsequential.
That's not quite gonna work the way you think it will. These secret votes are not binding, and are just a way for party leaders to try and gain some consensus.
And while McHenry is almost powerless, the one power he does have is to schedule a Speaker vote in the full House (which is binding). Or, more importantly, hold the House in recess and not hold a vote. If there is any indication that a handful of Republicans might be supporting Jeffries, then there will be no vote in the full House until those people are found out and sufficiently dealt with.
Any Republicans thinking seriously about leaving their party are better off not tipping their hand until a full vote is scheduled, then voting for Jeffries at the last possible minute.
I am aware that the secret ballot is non-binding and just serves as a way for Republicans to get a feel for which candidates their party can support. If Jeffries getting 5 votes actually affected anything, there would be no way that I could convince anyone in this hypothetical to go along with the plan.
This is would be a warning. The relatively small number of representatives that have been able to paralyze the house are only able to do so because they have enough votes to prevent any nominee from getting by on Republican votes alone. But their unwillingness to support their party's nominees and the way they've treated their own party members as the enemy is only increasing the divide.
The extremists are overplaying their hand because they need the whole party to go along with their bullshit, while the moderates can block just as effectively, but can also cross the aisle. Realistically, that would mean finding a compromise that Democrats could support. But theoretically, if a group of 5 or more moderates were determined to put an end to this and felt strongly enough about preventing a particularly bad nominee from getting pushed through, they could hand the speakership over to the Democrats without warning.
Putting in 5 votes for Hakeem Jeffries in the secret ballot would be a way of warning the party that it needs to pick a nominee that can be supported by the majority, and particularly the moderates. It would be telling the MAGA holdouts that they have to choose between a compromise candidate that they can support or they'll get one that the Democrats can support
I wouldn’t expect Republicans to actually make a deal with Democrats to make Jeffries the speaker. I think the deal they would have to negotiate would be to get Democrats to support a Republican who is less objectionable to both sides, and who isn't going to be held hostage by the whims of whoever wants to be the least reasonable.