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The severity of the punishment is not an effective deterrent. This has been known since a UN study from the 1980s, yet people still cling to the belief that a long prison sentence or the death penalty is a good deterrent.
So long as the punishment is significant enough that it cannot be dismissed (eg a small fine is meaningless to someone wealthy), then the only effective deterrent is the certainty of being caught.
Could you share a link to that study?
I've done a little digging, I think it might be this book: Roger Hood, The Death Penalty: A World-wide Perspective.
It was mentioned at the end of this Amnesty International fact sheet (pdf) that it was first published in 1988 then updated, I think there was also a fifth edition in 2015 so maybe there's an even another new one now. I'm not sure if this is exactly the same source I saw previously, but that could be because of the various revisions.
Thank you!