this post was submitted on 08 Sep 2023
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Generally speaking, housing costs don't decrease without a major economic event. Positive economic circumstances that raise housing costs set the benchmark, and negative events reset those.
Isn't this quite a major event? More empty homes -> more places to choose from -> more competition -> lower prices
Huge. The short term rental housing boom is unlike almost anything we’ve seen before. Estimates put short term rentals as about 20% of the global real estate market.
If that demand drops rapidly, it will mark a major shift. Tons of buyers and capital will be wiped off the table.
I agree with the usual perspective that housing prices almost always rise over time. But this is an unprecedented event in scale, and if reversed, it will have unprecedented ramifications.
This doesn't need to immediately lower housing costs to have a positive impact.
Hypothetical numbers... If housing was going to go up 5% in the next year and this change causes that to go down to a 1% increase, it will have made things better. Of course, we'd all like to just go straight to lowered housing costs. But individual changes can still do good and bring us towards that goal without strictly accomplishing it.